Gold Daily Forecast: Rate-Cut Hopes Rise and Bulls Test Key Breakout Levels
Gold continues to edge higher as traders reinforce expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, a shift supported...
Quick overview
- Gold prices are rising as traders anticipate a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, supported by weak US economic data.
- The dollar has weakened, contributing to gold's attractiveness as a non-yielding asset, while Treasury yields remain low.
- China's gold imports have significantly decreased, but US economic signals are currently more influential for traders.
- Technical analysis shows gold is bullish above $4,131, with potential targets of $4,203 and $4,245 if momentum continues.
Gold continues to edge higher as traders reinforce expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, a shift supported by a series of soft US economic readings. Retail sales grew less than projected, while the latest Producer Price Index rose 2.7% year-over-year, repeating August’s pace and signalling easing inflation pressures.
The dollar slipped toward a one-week low as investors positioned for a more accommodative Fed, and Treasury yields remained near their lowest levels in a month. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now price an 84% probability of a December cut—up sharply from 50% last week.
Analysts note that a softer dollar and falling yields continue to improve gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset. Meanwhile, China’s net gold imports via Hong Kong dropped 64% in October, reflecting slower demand, but traders remain focused on US macro signals rather than overseas flows.
Silver is following gold’s trajectory, gaining support from lower yields and growing expectations of a broader policy shift. The upcoming US jobless-claims report may influence short-term volatility, but sentiment remains tilted toward precious-metal strength as long as rate-cut expectations hold.
Gold Technical Analysis
Gold is firm after breaking above the descending trendline and is now trading near $4,164, with the $4,131–$4,123 band acting as intraday support. The 20-EMA continues to guide the recovery, while the RSI at 63 shows healthy momentum without flashing overbought signals.
A sustained hold above $4,131 keeps the short-term bias positive and opens the door for a retest of $4,203, with potential extension toward $4,245 if momentum improves.
However, slipping below $4,123 would expose $4,086, where a rising trendline also intersects. A break beneath $4,086 would weaken the current structure and delay bullish continuation.
Trade Idea – Gold (XAU/USD)
Bias: Bullish above support
- Entry: Above $4,131 after confirming support
- Target 1: $4,203
- Target 2: $4,245
- Stop-Loss: Below $4,086
Rationale: Trendline breakout, higher-low structure, 20-EMA support, and improving RSI momentum.
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