Bitcoin Price Prediction: Will Pension Reform, Fed Cuts and Nasdaq Risk Fuel a Breakout?
Bitcoin enters the week at a critical moment as U.S. pension-fund debates, fresh Federal Reserve rate cuts and mounting speculation...
Quick overview
- Bitcoin is at a pivotal point influenced by U.S. pension fund debates, Federal Reserve rate cuts, and speculation about its index inclusion.
- The discussion around allowing cryptocurrencies in retirement accounts is intensifying, with labor unions expressing concerns over potential risks.
- Following recent Fed rate cuts, Bitcoin has surged, indicating a potential for further upward movement as market conditions improve.
- Analysts predict that the bitcoin-focused company Strategy may be removed from the Nasdaq 100, adding to market volatility but highlighting Bitcoin's growing significance.
Bitcoin enters the week at a critical moment as U.S. pension-fund debates, fresh Federal Reserve rate cuts and mounting speculation over Strategy’s potential removal from the Nasdaq 100 all shape market sentiment. Washington’s clash over allowing crypto in retirement accounts highlights Bitcoin’s growing influence, while the Fed’s easing cycle lifts risk appetite. At the same time, index-inclusion risks add volatility but keep Bitcoin firmly in the spotlight.
Crypto Industry and Trade Unions Clash over Retirement Funds
The question of whether U.S. retirement accounts, such as 401(k)s should be permitted to invest in cryptocurrencies is becoming a major topic of discussion in Washington D.C., between labor unions and cryptocurrency startups. Trillions of dollars could be added to the cryptocurrency market by new legislation that loosens existing regulations. But labor unions are strongly against the change.
The Senate was informed by the 1.8 million-member American Federation of Teachers (AFT) that cryptocurrency is too hazardous and unstable for workers’ retirement savings. Pension holders could see major losses, they said.
Investors in cryptocurrency swiftly retaliated, labeling the union’s worries as “uninformed” and claiming that the plan would actually strengthen oversight.
Proponents contend that incorporating cryptocurrency gives employees access to high-performing assets and more options. However the AFL-CIO and other significant unions cautioned that cryptocurrency might pose systemic dangers to pension funds.
LATEST: 🧑🏫 The American Federation of Teachers has sent a letter to the US Senate opposing the Responsible Financial Innovation Act, claiming the bill threatens its members' retirement security because it could allow crypto to enter public pensions. pic.twitter.com/LOhG124kdS
— CoinMarketCap (@CoinMarketCap) December 11, 2025
The conversation emphasizes how important cryptocurrency is becoming. Large retirement funds may enter the market if regulations are later loosened which would be positive for Bitcoin prices.
Bitcoin Rises After Fed Rate Cut, Bigger Rally May Be Coming
After the U.S. Federal Reserve’s third interest rate drop in three months, bitcoin surged on Wednesday. From September to December the Fed lowered rates by a total of 0.75%. Although analysts claim that these cutbacks are bullish for cryptocurrency each one has resulted in short-term selling as traders adopt the traditional “buy the rumor sell the news” strategy.
A larger recovery typically occurs after the market settles according to onchain firm Santiment and this decline resembles previous post-cut actions. They expect anxiety or modest retail sales showing that the decline is coming to an end.
Reduced interest rates stimulate demand for risky assets like Bitcoin and make borrowing more affordable. The Fed’s measures were anticipated, according to analysts, but better market mood aided in the recovery of cryptocurrencies.
Cautious Cut by Fed
Yesterday’s cautious cut by the @federalreserve played out exactly as expected.
Markets welcomed the rate cut, but not the guidance.Smart money is still stepping in and wallets holding 10–10,000 BTC accumulated 42k+ BTC since Dec 1. Institutions are buying… pic.twitter.com/s0GN4jsQ0t
— STR8FIRE (@STR8FIRE_io) December 11, 2025
Long-term bullish momentum is supported by the rate cut. Bitcoin may see further robust upward movement in the coming days as liquidity improves.
Strategy Faces Risk of Removal from Nasdaq 100 Index
Analysts predict that Strategy (previously MicroStrategy) a bitcoin-focused startup may be taken out of the Nasdaq 100 on Friday as part of the yearly shuffle. The company’s market capitalization originally reached $128 billion however it has subsequently drastically decreased after switching from software to large Bitcoin investments in 2020. Some commentators have questioned its business strategy stating that it now resembles a cryptocurrency holding corporation rather than a tech company.
Due mostly to accounting adjustments that made it possible to recognize earnings from Bitcoin Strategy posted a significant $2.78 billion profit last quarter.
However, only $128.7 million was made from its core software sector. Compared to Bitcoin’s slight decline this year, Strategy’s share price has dropped 65% from its high.
Strategy may lose roughly $1.6 billion in passive funds if it is eliminated. However due of its large market value, several analysts believe it will remain
Strategy risks removal in Nasdaq 100 reshuffle: Analysts https://t.co/1Z0Htm3z01
— Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) December 12, 2025
Such news increases market instability but it also emphasizes the growing impact of Bitcoin. Short-term support for Bitcoin prices may come from increased attention.
Bitcoin Price Prediction – Technical Analysis
Bitcoin is trading near $90,460, sitting right on top of a rising trendline that has supported price action since the December lows. Candlesticks along this trendline show narrow bodies and small wicks, signalling reduced volatility as the market compresses into a triangle structure. The 50-EMA near $91,600 is acting as short-term resistance, while the 200-EMA around $94,600 remains the key ceiling that capped every upside attempt this month.
Horizontal resistance at $91,599 continues to reject intraday rallies, with repeated upper wicks confirming seller interest at that level. If buyers break above this zone, the next targets sit at $94,612, followed by $96,788, where previous breakdown levels align with the longer-term moving average.
On the downside, a clean break below the rising trendline exposes $88,628, and then $86,217, both major support levels from earlier consolidation phases. Meanwhile, RSI hovers near 44, showing weak momentum and hinting that BTC may drift sideways until a decisive breakout occurs.
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