Gold Price Forecast: $4,530 Holds as Bulls Eye $4,600 Next Week
Gold closed Friday near $4,533 after extending its rising channel. Holding above $4,470 keeps $4,600 and $4,645 in focus next week.
Quick overview
- Gold prices ended last week positively, with XAU/USD reaching around $4,533.
- The price remains above key moving averages, indicating a bullish trend despite some short-term pauses.
- Gold is trading within an ascending channel, with recent resistance levels now acting as support.
- Looking ahead, maintaining prices above $4,470 is crucial for continued bullish momentum.
Gold prices wrapped up last week in pretty good shape. The XAU/USD ticked up to around $4,533 by Friday, keeping things moving in the right direction heading into the weekend.
This move capped off a steady run that’s kept the price well above those key moving averages, which is about all you can ask for as a bullish sign. Even with a few short-term pauses near recent highs, the charts still looked good.
Now that things are closed up over the weekend, gold starts the new week in a strong position rather than a weakened one. The price action hasn’t been wild or erratic – it’s all looked pretty orderly, which suggests we might be seeing some consolidation rather than a reversal.
Rising Channel Keeps Structure Bullish
On the 4-hour chart, GOLD is still trading inside that ascending channel it’s been in all month, where higher highs and higher lows are all we’re seeing. That mid-channel trendline has been a solid attractor for buyers, and the pullbacks we have been seeing have been pretty shallow and easily reversed.
Where we were seeing resistance around $4,470-$4,480 has flipped and is now acting as support. That really reinforces the bullish view. A bit above current levels, we’ve got some resistance at around $4,550, followed by $4,600-$4,645, where the upper channel boundary and previous supply converge.
It’s also worth noting that gold is still well and truly above both the 50 EMA at $4,413 and the 100 EMA at $4,340, which puts the medium-term momentum firmly in the green.
Momentum Strong, But Cooling Gradually
Momentum indicators are still looking pretty strong, but we can see some early signs that they might be starting to cool off rather than keep accelerating.
The RSI is sitting around 72 now, which is a solidly bullish position but not one that’s getting any faster or more extreme. That suggests that upside momentum is still intact, but a pullback or consolidation could be a good thing after the run we’ve just had.
One thing worth noting, though, is that there isn’t any bearish divergence visible here, so as long as the RSI stays above that 60 zone, we’re looking at a continuation rather than a breakdown.
Gold Price Outlook for the Week Ahead
Looking ahead to next week, GOLD is pretty constructive as long as we can keep the price above $4,470. If we do get a pullback towards that trend support, I’m sure we’d see some buying interest kick in quickly – rather than a big sell-off.
If we do manage to break through $4,550, it might open the way towards $4,600, and if momentum really picks up, we might even see a run towards $4,645. On the downside, if we do drop below $4,470, I think our next level of interest would be around $4,430 – although, to be honest, given where the structure is at the moment, I think that’s one we can probably discount for now.
Trade idea: If you’re looking to buy in, a pullback towards $4,470-$4,480 would be worth considering; target $4,600, with a stop below $4,430.
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