Gold Price Forecast: $4,400 Hold Signals Next Test Toward $4,550
Gold prices are cruising into 2026 with definite upward momentum, courtesy of buyers keen to defend key technical levels and macro...
Quick overview
- Gold prices are showing upward momentum as they approach 2026, currently hovering around $4,404 after bouncing off a low of $4,272.
- The technical structure has improved significantly after reclaiming the $4,350 to $4,360 area, reducing downside pressure.
- Momentum indicators like the RSI are stabilizing, suggesting potential for further upside if new catalysts emerge.
- The macro environment remains supportive for gold, with expectations of US interest rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical risks driving demand.
Gold prices are cruising into 2026 with definite upward momentum, courtesy of buyers keen to defend key technical levels and macro conditions that remain pretty good. Spot gold (XAU/USD) is hovering around the $4,404 mark, managing to stay above the short-term support levels after bouncing off that $4,272 low – it was a nasty bounce, but the metal has held up alright. The whole move suggests a nice balance between technical stabilization and renewed demand for defensive assets, which is making investors jittery amid global uncertainty.
While gold did take a bit of a hit from that record high in December at $4,550, the price action suggests this may be more of a consolidation play rather than the metal just running out of steam. Investors still seem happy to pick some up at lower prices, which is a clear sign they think the overall uptrend is in place.
Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Structure – A Big Turnaround Above $4,350
On the 4-hour chart, gold has taken back the $4,350 to $4,360 area – that’s an important zone that was reinforced by the 50-period moving average, and now that it’s reclaimed, the short-term structure has improved a lot, and the downside pressure is reduced. The 200-period moving average is near $4,351 and is acting as a pivot, with a rising trendline from the November lows still defining the overall bullish trend channel.
Some recent candlesticks show higher lows and tight closes, suggesting buyers are actually absorbing these pullbacks rather than just chasing momentum. This behaviour can often precede a continuation move – especially when volatility is compressing near that moving-average support.
Some of the key technical reference points we should be keeping an eye on are:
- Resistance Level: $4,422, then $4,485
- Major Upside Level: $4,549 (that record high)
- Support: $4,350, then $4,272
If gold breaks above $4,485, it’ll be ready to open the way back to that record territory.
Momentum – Finally Starting to Stabilise as RSI Resets
The momentum indicators are finally aligning with the improving price structure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has come back down to 54, which is a sign the momentum is stabilising without getting overbought – that’s good news, and it’s giving us a bit of room for upside if any fresh catalysts come along.
Fibonacci retracement levels from the last peak indicate that gold is still holding above the 38.2% retracement, which could signal trend continuation rather than reversal. As long as it stays above that zone, the overall bias is in gold’s favour.
The Macro Backdrop Continues to Look Pretty Good for Gold
Beyond the charts, the overall environment remains supportive of gold prices. Expectations of a US interest rate cut in 2026, combined with ongoing geopolitical risk, have kept demand for non-yielding assets pretty strong. Central bank buying and ETF inflows are also contributing to the longer-term support structure.
Traders are still getting a bit cautious at these higher price levels. There could be some profit-taking and tighter liquidity conditions, which could slow gains, even if the overall trend remains positive.
Trade Idea
Pick up some on a pullback near $4,360 and target $4,485, with a stop below $4,270.
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