Daily Crypto Signals: Bitcoin Targets $100K Resistance, Ethereum Reclaims $3.3K
The crypto market added over $300 billion in value during the first week of January 2026, with Bitcoin reaching its highest price since
Quick overview
- The crypto market gained over $300 billion in value in early January 2026, with Bitcoin reaching $94,600 before settling at $93,800 and Ethereum approaching $3,300.
- Investment bank TD Cowen warns that the CLARITY Act for crypto market structure may be delayed until 2027 due to the upcoming US midterm elections.
- Bitcoin's recent price movements indicate a potential for significant liquidations in both long and short positions, highlighting a volatile market environment.
- Ethereum's rise towards $3,300 is supported by retail traders, while larger whale wallets are showing signs of selling, creating a divide in market dynamics.
The crypto market added over $300 billion in value during the first week of January 2026, with Bitcoin BTC/USD reaching its highest price since early December at $94,600 before cooling to $93,800, while Ethereum ETH/USD pushed toward $3,300 as technical indicators suggest a potential 20% rally ahead. However, regulatory uncertainty looms as investment bank TD Cowen warns that crucial crypto market structure legislation may face delays until 2027 due to upcoming US midterm elections.
Crypto Market Developments
On Monday, the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies rose 1.3% to about $3.3 trillion. This was on top of advances from just over $3 trillion at the start of 2026. This rally sent key US crypto equities up by double digits, with Bakkt’s 31.5% rise and Bitcoin treasury business Kindly MD’s 24% rise leading the way. American Bitcoin, a Trump-linked crypto miner, rose 13.5% to break above $2 for the first time in almost a month. Hut 8, IREN, and Cipher Mining, on the other hand, all saw rises of between 12% and 13.5%.
TD Cowen has warned that the CLARITY Act, which aims to create a clear digital asset market structure in the US, could stay stuck until 2027. However, the market is still moving in a favorable direction. The research team at the investment bank thinks that Senate Democrats might stop the plan before the midterm elections because Congress could change its power. TD Cowen said that time might help the bill pass, with the bank predicting that it would be passed in 2027 and put into effect in 2029. However, both sides would need to give up certain important parts of the bill.
At the same time, Bitcoin Core developers sent out urgent warnings about a serious wallet migration fault in versions 30.0 and 30.1 that might erase files and cause people to lose money. When pruning is turned on, the bug impacts migrations from legacy wallet.dat files stored in custom directories. This could delete whole wallet directories if there are no backups. Developers have taken the affected versions off the official download sites and told users not to use wallet migration tools until the patched Bitcoin Core 30.2 release is ready.
Can Bitcoin Cross $100,000 Resistance Soon?
Bitcoin’s sudden 7.4% rise at the beginning of January has brought the market’s attention back to futures posture and liquidation data, which shows a very uneven setup. CoinGlass says that if Bitcoin goes back to $84,000, over $10.65 billion in leveraged long bets will be liquidated. On the other hand, if Bitcoin goes up to $104,000, just about $2 billion in short positions will be liquidated. This huge imbalance makes prices more likely to move in both directions because liquidations operate as forced market orders that speed up price changes.
However, Hyperliquid’s analyst positioning data shows a different picture for retail traders, who seem to be too short. One crypto trader said the scenario was “absurd,” pointing out that a rally could wipe out almost 6,000 BTC worth of retail shorts, while a similar drop could only wipe out 2,000 BTC worth of retail longs. Even while this setup looks bullish at first glance, a deeper look shows that the risk is more evenly distributed. About 3,860 BTC in longs would be at danger if the price dropped by $10,000, while 4,100 BTC in shorts would be at risk if the price rose. Analyst Crypto Dan said that Bitcoin needs to get back to its six- to twelve-month holding cost base of about $100,000 to show that the trend has changed. If it doesn’t, it will show that the larger decline is still going on. There are still technical hazards with unfilled CME gaps between $90,600 and $91,600 and between $88,170 and $88,700. These could come into play if Bitcoin is turned down near the $96,000 resistance level.
Ethereum Tests $3,300, What’s Next?
Ethereum’s 10% rise in January has brought prices closer to $3,300 and brought analysts’ attention back to a double bottom pattern that is forming on the daily chart. If confirmed, this technical formation, which formed throughout the course of Q4 2025 by repeatedly defending a major demand zone, aims for the $3,900 level. This would be a possible 20% gain from current prices. The 200-period exponential moving average is still the biggest problem right now. It has turned down twice since the overall trend became bearish in November.
A daily close above the 200-EMA at $3,300 for a long time would mean that the long-term trend resistance has been broken and would be a bullish break of structure, supporting the double bottom thesis. CryptoQuant’s Cumulative Volume Delta data reveals that both spot and futures taker buying have been going up over the past three weeks. This means that demand is steady across markets.
However, Hyblock Capital data shows a clear difference: whale wallets with between $100,000 and $10 million saw a cumulative delta of -$40 million this week, which means they were selling, while retail traders with between $1,000 and $10,000 and mid-sized traders with between $10,000 and $100,000 saw positive deltas of $3.4 million and $28 million, respectively, over the last six days. This divide shows that smaller players are helping Ethereum recover right now. Whether or not bigger players come back in could decide if ETH will break through the 200-EMA resistance or stay at its present levels.
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