XAU/USD – Daily Chart
Forex Signals Jan 26: FED Decision This Week, Earnings from Tesla, Apple, MSFT, UNH, Meta, GM, Visa
The Federal Reserve is anticipated to maintain interest rates on Wednesday, but investors are now focused on forward guidance and a packed..
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Last updated: Monday, January 26, 2026
Quick overview
- The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, with investors focusing on forward guidance and major earnings reports from companies like Microsoft and Apple.
- Japan's recent rate check has caused volatility in the yen, raising speculation about potential currency intervention despite a lack of clear market signals.
- The U.S. dollar continues to weaken broadly, coinciding with rising oil prices and renewed geopolitical concerns, particularly regarding Cuba and Iran.
- Equity markets showed mixed performance, with megacap tech stocks holding steady while smaller-cap stocks struggled, highlighted by Intel's significant drop after disappointing guidance.
The Federal Reserve is anticipated to maintain interest rates on Wednesday, but investors are now focused on forward guidance and a packed earnings schedule that includes Microsoft, Apple, Meta, Tesla, and Boeing.
Japan’s Rate Check Sparks Yen Volatility
The most significant development came from Japan, where the Ministry of Finance conducted a so-called rate check—contacting banks to request FX quotes. While procedurally minor, the move carries strong symbolic weight, as it is often seen as a potential precursor to currency intervention.
The yen had already weakened earlier in the session, with USD/JPY climbing to around 159.20 following the Bank of Japan. That move reversed sharply, however, with the pair dropping to near 154.20 early today. There was some market chatter about possible intervention, but the timing—late on a Friday, well after Tokyo markets had closed—would be highly unusual. Moreover, the move lacked the sharp, one-directional spike typically associated with direct intervention.
Broad Dollar Weakness Raises Questions
Another key theme was persistent U.S. dollar weakness. The dollar continued to sell off broadly, again without a clear macro or data-driven trigger. This softness coincided with a roughly 3% jump in oil prices, fresh highs in precious metals, and a pullback in cryptocurrencies.
Geopolitics Back in Focus
That combination of asset moves points toward a geopolitical premium creeping back into markets. Late-session talk of a potential full Cuban blockade circulated, while attention also remained on possible developments involving Iran. President Trump has a history of acting over weekends, and markets appeared to be pricing in at least some probability of renewed geopolitical escalation.
Equity Markets Show Diverging Performance
In equities, performance was mixed. Megacap technology stocks remained resilient, while smaller-cap stocks lagged, with the Russell 2000 under pressure. The S&P 500 finished broadly flat on the week, masking significant internal divergence. Notably, the year-to-date leader, Intel, plunged roughly 17% after issuing disappointing forward guidance, underscoring how quickly sentiment can shift even within an otherwise steady index backdrop.
Key Market Events to Watch This Week
Federal Reserve Policy Decision in Focus (Wednesday)
The Federal Open Market Committee is widely expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged in the 3.50%–3.75% range at next week’s meeting. At this point in the cycle, the decision itself is largely a formality. What matters most for markets is the tone of the Fed’s guidance and how policymakers frame the path toward eventual easing.
According to a Reuters poll, economists are unanimous in expecting no rate change, with 58% also forecasting that rates will remain on hold through the rest of the quarter. Recent economic data supports this stance. U.S. growth remained robust through the second half of 2025, while inflation continues to run above the Fed’s target, limiting any urgency to cut rates.
As a result, policymakers are likely to stick closely to their data-dependent narrative. The Fed is expected to acknowledge cooling in some areas of the economy while emphasizing that inflation progress is not yet sufficient to justify signalling imminent easing. Any attempt to push back against premature rate-cut expectations could have a meaningful impact on yields, the dollar, and equity valuations.
Heavyweight Earnings Dominate the Corporate Calendar
Alongside the Fed, corporate earnings will play a decisive role in shaping market sentiment. This week features results from some of the world’s largest and most influential companies across technology, industrials, healthcare, energy, and consumer sectors.
Earnings Reports For the Week
- RYAAY – Ryanair Holdings plcQ3 2026 Earnings AnnouncementBMO0.15
- UNH – UnitedHealth Group IncorporatedQ4 2025 Earnings AnnouncementBMO2.11
- BA – Boeing Q4 2025 Earnings AnnouncementBMO-0.41
- GM – General Motors CompanyQ4 2025 Earnings AnnouncementBMO2.26
- MSFT – Microsoft CorporationQ2 2026 Earnings AnnouncementAMC3.85
- META – Meta Platforms, Inc.Q4 2025 Earnings AnnouncementAMC8.2
- TSLA – Tesla, Inc.Q4 2025 Earnings AnnouncementAMC0.45
- IBM – International Business Machines CorporationQ4 2025 Earnings AnnouncementAMC4.29
- AAPL – Apple Inc.Q1 2026 Earnings AnnouncementAMC2.67
- XOM – Exxon Mobil CorporationQ4 2025 Earnings AnnouncementBMO1.7
- V – Visa Inc.Q1 2026 Earnings AnnouncementAMC3.14
Gold Breaks Above $5,000
Although demand for safe haven assets is still high, gold fell precipitously from record highs following the Fed’s most recent rate cut comments, as profit-taking was prompted by Powell’s cautious tone. In December, gold jumped above $4.3800 following the Federal Reserve’s announcement of a 25 basis point rate decrease. But the impetus soon waned, and prices dropped back to $4,004. The 20 daily SMA (gray) held as support last week and buyers returned and pushed XAU above $4,900K on Tuesday but we saw a pullback after US President Trump’s comments. However buyers returned and on Monday XAU broke above $5,000.
USD/JPY Nears Slips Below 155
Foreign exchange markets saw sharp swings. Early in the week, U.S. yield differentials and Japanese capital outflows pushed the dollar above ¥150, but disappointing U.S. jobs data triggered profit-taking, causing the USD/JPY to slide by four yen from its peak. However, the new BOJ governor the JPY has weakened and USD/JPY soared to 154 and we decided to close our buy signal for more than 80 pips as the pair found support at the 20 daily SMA (gray) and has rebounded more than 200 pips off that MA but reversed after the 25 bps rate cut from the FED. The price approached $160 but reversed after the BOJ meeting and fell below $155.
USD/JPY – Daily Chart
Cryptocurrency Update
Bitcoin Returns to the 100 SMA
Cryptocurrencies remained highly active over the summer. Bitcoin (BTC) climbed to fresh highs of $123,000 and $124,000 in July and August, supported by institutional inflows and technical strength. However, remarks from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent ruling out U.S. increases to BTC reserves triggered a steep pullback, sending the coin down to $80K before finding support at the 100 weekly SMA (green). A rebound followed, sending BTC near $100 is the first major text for Bitcoin buyers. However yesterday BTC returned below $90K but the 100 weekly SMA (green) continued to hold as support.
BTC/USD – Weekly Chart
Ethereum Returns Below $3,000
Ethereum (ETH) has been similarly strong, surging toward $4,800, its highest since 2021 and near its all-time peak of $4,860. Despite a dip last week, ETH found support at the 20-day SMA, with retail enthusiasm and renewed institutional participation driving fresh upside momentum. Last week we saw a dive below $2.700 but the 200 weekly SMA held as support and we’re seeing a rebound but buyers face the 100 SMA (green) now.
ETH/USD – Weekly Chart
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Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst.
Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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