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Forex Signals Feb 5: Shell, Linde, Sony and AMZN Amazon Earning Preview – ECB & BOE Rate Meeting
Thursday's earnings reports from Amazon, Shell, Linde, and Sony give investors new information on global entertainment cycles, industrial...
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Last updated: Thursday, February 5, 2026
Quick overview
- Thursday's earnings reports from major companies like Amazon and Shell provide insights into global economic trends and consumer demand.
- The AI trade is facing a reckoning as software companies struggle with pricing power, impacting market sentiment and semiconductor stocks.
- Energy markets experienced volatility, with oil prices fluctuating amid geopolitical tensions and mixed signals from major companies.
- The ECB and BoE are maintaining their current policy settings, but future rate cuts may be on the horizon as inflation dynamics evolve.
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MARKETS TREND
Thursday’s earnings reports from Amazon, Shell, Linde, and Sony give investors new information on global entertainment cycles, industrial gas patterns, energy prices, and consumer demand.
A Reckoning in the AI Trade
There was always going to be a moment of reckoning for the AI trade, but the way it is unfolding has caught markets off guard. Concerns intensified after Claude’s latest feature upgrades raised fears that software companies may struggle to maintain pricing power. That narrative has driven a sharp re-rating across parts of the software space and continued to weigh on sentiment today. The fallout also spread back into high-flying semiconductor names, with Micron sliding 9% and AMD plunging 16% following earnings, underscoring how fragile confidence has become across the broader AI complex.
Risk-Off Undercurrents and Sector Rotation
Adding to the pressure, bitcoin fell to its lowest level since November 2024, dropping to $72,082 and dragging risk assets lower more broadly. Beneath the surface, however, a familiar rotation continued to build. Old-economy stocks, including industrials and transports, once again outperformed—a theme that has been gaining traction all week as investors seek more cyclical and valuation-supported exposure.
Commodities and Macro Crosscurrents
Energy markets were volatile, with oil initially jumping on reports that Iran–U.S. talks had been called off, only to retreat after Iranian officials denied the claim. Precious metals failed to hold early gains, with gold topping out near $5,092 and silver briefly touching $92.20. Meanwhile, Alphabet beat Q4 revenue expectations, but its aggressive 2026 capex outlook unsettled markets, raising fresh questions around margins, cash flow, and valuation as AI investment accelerates.
Key Market Events to Watch: Earnings Reports Thursday
Thursday’s earnings slate spans technology, energy, industrials, and entertainment, offering investors a well-rounded snapshot of global economic momentum. With valuations under scrutiny and guidance increasingly driving price action, commentary from Amazon, Shell, Linde and Sony may shape sentiment well beyond their individual sectors as markets look for confirmation of resilience—or emerging cracks—into 2026.
ECB Minutes: Policy on Hold, Hawkish Undertones Linger
The ECB kept policy settings unchanged in December, in line with expectations, and reaffirmed its meeting-by-meeting, data-dependent guidance. Inflation projections were mixed, with the 2026 outlook revised higher and the 2027 view lowered. Overall, the narrative that the Deposit Rate has reached a 2.00% terminal level remains the base case and was reinforced by the statement and press conference, prompting a modestly hawkish market reaction. Subsequent comments from ECB officials have echoed the view that policy is in a “good place,” with rates expected to remain on hold for now, even as opinions differ on whether the next move is ultimately a cut or a hike.
BoE Outlook: Hold Now, Cut Later?
In the U.K., the Bank of England is widely expected to leave rates unchanged at 3.75% this week, while potentially signaling a cut as soon as March. The BoE turned more dovish in December with a 25 bp cut, but data since then have been firmer than anticipated. GDP, retail sales, and PMIs have all surprised to the upside. Inflation pressures continue to ease, though core inflation remains elevated. Softer wage growth, however, suggests more subdued inflation dynamics ahead, keeping the door open to further easing.
Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) – Q4 2025 Earnings | After Market Close (AMC)
- Market expectations point to EPS of 1.96, with attention centered on margin trends rather than headline revenue.
- Investors will closely watch AWS growth, particularly signs of stabilization or re-acceleration amid enterprise AI and cloud optimization efforts.
- Retail margins and cost discipline remain key, especially following continued investments in logistics efficiency and automation.
- Guidance around AI spending, capital expenditure, and advertising growth could shape near-term sentiment.
- Any commentary on consumer demand resilience into 2026 will be critical for broader market confidence.
Shell plc (SHEL) – Q4 2025 Earnings | Before Market Open (BMO)
- Consensus expectations sit near EPS of 1.29, reflecting softer energy pricing in the latter part of the quarter.
- Investors will assess upstream profitability and downstream refining margins amid volatile crude and gas markets.
- Capital allocation, including share buybacks and dividends, remains a focal point given Shell’s strong cash generation profile.
- Updates on energy transition investments and LNG demand outlook could influence longer-term valuation assumptions.
- Balance-sheet strength and cash flow resilience will be key in gauging downside protection.
Linde plc (LIN) – Q4 2025 Earnings | Before Market Open (BMO)
- The market is pricing in EPS of 4.18, underscoring expectations for steady, defensive earnings growth.
- Focus will be on pricing power and contract renewals, particularly in industrial gases tied to healthcare and electronics.
- Investors will look for updates on hydrogen and clean energy projects, which underpin Linde’s long-term growth narrative.
- Margin stability and cost control remain crucial amid mixed global industrial demand.
- Any changes to capital expenditure plans or long-term guidance could move the stock.
Sony Group Corporation (SONY) – Q3 2025 Earnings | Before Market Open (BMO)
- Expectations are set around EPS of 0.28, with performance varying across business segments.
- Investors will assess gaming division momentum, especially PlayStation hardware sales and software margins.
- The music and film businesses remain important profit stabilizers, particularly in a volatile consumer environment.
- Currency effects and cost pressures may influence reported results and guidance.
- Management commentary on content investment and gaming pipeline will be closely watched.
Gold Climbs Above $5,000 Again After the Flush
Although demand for safe haven assets is still high, gold fell precipitously from record highs following the Fed’s most recent rate cut comments, as profit-taking was prompted by Powell’s cautious tone. In December, gold jumped above $4.3800 following the Federal Reserve’s announcement of a 25 basis point rate decrease. But the impetus soon waned, and prices dropped back to $4,004. The 20 daily SMA (gray) held as support last week and buyers returned and pushed XAU above the $5,000 mark for the first time during Asian hours and extended the rally in New York, printing a fresh record high near $5,111 before retreating below $5,000 late in the session. But buyers returned into Asian session and XAU climbed to $5,598 but pulled back below $5,000 and rebounded back up in the most volatile day ever.
USD/JPY Rebounds Above 155
Foreign exchange markets saw sharp swings. Early in the week, U.S. yield differentials and Japanese capital outflows pushed the dollar above ¥150, but disappointing U.S. jobs data triggered profit-taking, causing the USD/JPY to slide by four yen from its peak. However, the new BOJ governor the JPY has weakened and USD/JPY soared to 154 and we decided to close our buy signal for more than 80 pips as the pair found support at the 20 daily SMA (gray) and has rebounded more than 200 pips off that MA but reversed after the 25 bps rate cut from the FED. The price approached $160 but reversed after the BOJ meeting and fell 8 cents but found support at $152 at the 100 daily SMA (red) and rebounded above 155.
USD/JPY – Daily Chart
Cryptocurrency Update
Bitcoin Fall Stalls at 2025 Lows
Cryptocurrencies remained highly active over the summer. Bitcoin (BTC) climbed to fresh highs of $123,000 and $124,000 in July and August, supported by institutional inflows and technical strength. However, remarks from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent ruling out U.S. increases to BTC reserves triggered a steep pullback, sending the coin down to $80K before finding support at the 100 weekly SMA (green). A rebound followed, sending BTC near $100 is the first major text for Bitcoin buyers. However BTC returned lower and fell below $80K, breaking below the but the 100 weekly SMA (green) but the decline stopped at the support and resistance zone above $65K.
BTC/USD – Weekly Chart
Ethereum Heads to $2,000
Ethereum (ETH) has been similarly strong, surging toward $4,800, its highest since 2021 and near its all-time peak of $4,860. Despite a dip last week, ETH found support at the 20-day SMA, with retail enthusiasm and renewed institutional participation driving fresh upside momentum. Last week we saw a dive below $2,500.
ETH/USD – Weekly Chart
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Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst.
Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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