WTI Crude Oil Tests $64 Support: Can Diplomacy Defuse the Middle East Risk Premium?
On Tuesday, February 10, 2026, WTI Crude Oil is trading between $64.10 and $64.20 per barrel. The US benchmark is consolidating...
Quick overview
- WTI Crude Oil is trading between $64.10 and $64.20 per barrel, with a slight dip of 0.2% amid geopolitical tensions and supply concerns.
- Indirect US-Iran talks in Oman are seen as a positive development, but Iran's uranium enrichment continues to pose challenges.
- The overall outlook for 2026 remains bearish, with agencies predicting a growing supply surplus that could lower prices significantly.
- Technical analysis shows WTI is within a symmetrical triangle, suggesting a potential breakout, with key support at $63.80 and resistance at $64.85.
On Tuesday, February 10, 2026, WTI Crude Oil is trading between $64.10 and $64.20 per barrel. The US benchmark is consolidating as the market considers the risk premium from the Strait of Hormuz and the possibility of a global supply surplus.
WTI has dipped 0.2% during the day but is holding steady. Support comes from a technical triangle pattern and continued uncertainty about US-Iran nuclear talks in Oman.
Geopolitical Tug-of-War: Oman Talks vs. Hormuz Threats
Today’s price movement is mainly driven by changing events in the Middle East. Prices jumped in January after military tensions, but the recent shift toward peace in early February has limited further gains.
- The “Good Start” in Muscat: Indirect talks between the US and Iran started again last Friday in Oman. Negotiators called the first round a “good start,” but Iran’s decision to keep enriching uranium is still a major obstacle.
- Maritime Warnings: Balancing out the positive news from diplomacy, the US has warned American ships to avoid Iranian waters in the Strait of Hormuz. This warning about possible supply disruptions is helping to support prices.
- The India-Russia Factor: Investors are watching a new US-India trade deal closely. Some reports say India might stop importing Russian crude, which could lead to big changes in global oil flows and make non-Russian oil harder to find.
2026 Fundamentals: A Bearish Shadow Looms
Although news headlines cause daily price swings, the overall outlook for 2026 is still negative. Agencies such as the EIA and IEA warn that a growing supply surplus could drive prices much lower by the end of the year.
Supply Surplus vs. Weak Demand
| Factor | 2026 Outlook Detail |
| Global Production | Expected to rise by 1.4 million b/d, led by OPEC+ unwinding cuts and growth in Guyana and Brazil. |
| US Output | Forecasted to hold near 13.6 million b/d, though lower prices may finally curb shale drilling activity. |
| Global Demand | Growth is stalled at 0.8–1.1 million b/d due to efficiency gains and the energy transition. |
| Price Projections | The EIA projects WTI will average $52/b in 2026, a sharp drop from $65 in 2025. |
WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis: Symmetrical Triangle in Play
On the 1-hour chart, WTI is trading within a symmetrical triangle. This pattern often means a breakout could happen soon as prices move between rising support and falling resistance.
Key Levels to Watch
- Resistance: There is selling pressure at $64.85, and a major barrier at the January high of $66.20.
- Support: The lower trendline at $63.80 has held firm. If prices fall below this level, they could drop to the $62.20 base.
- Indicators: The RSI is close to 50, showing a neutral outlook. Prices are also near the 50-period moving average at $63.60, which supports the current cautious mood.
Trade Idea: The Support Play
Since prices have bounced off the lower end of the triangle, short-term traders may find a tactical opportunity here.
Trading Strategy:
- Entry: Buy pullbacks near $63.80.
- Target: $65.50 (near the upper resistance zone).
- Stop-Loss: Below $63.00 to protect against a bearish breakdown.
Bottom Line: The current risk premium is keeping WTI above $60, but with oversupply expected, any move toward $70 could prompt sellers to enter the market again.
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