Gold Price Forecast: Spot Rebounds to $5,172 as Iran War Escalaion Targets “Warships” and Energy Hubs
Gold is once again entering a volatile phase, with prices jumping 1.6% ($85) to $5,172 per ounce as the US-Iran conflict takes a dramatic...
Quick overview
- Gold prices surged 1.6% to $5,172 per ounce amid escalating US-Iran tensions, following a significant naval confrontation.
- The conflict has expanded beyond the Middle East, with NATO's involvement indicating a global crisis and rising energy prices.
- Despite a strong US economy and reduced expectations for interest rate cuts, the 'War Premium' is currently supporting gold prices.
- Analysts suggest buying the dip in gold around $5,100-$5,130, while cautioning about potential price drops if support levels fail.
Gold is once again entering a volatile phase, with prices jumping 1.6% ($85) to $5,172 per ounce as the US-Iran conflict takes a dramatic turn. At this point, Thursday 5th of March 2026, we’re seeing a pretty significant rebound from the price drop of yesterday.
The key driver behind this sudden surge is the sudden expansion of the US-Israel-Iran conflict. Yesterday’s rumors that this was all just a bunch of “peace talk” have been blown out of the water, with reports emerging that a US sub has sunk an Iranian warship off the coast of Sri Lanka and NATO has intercepted some ballistic missiles over Turkey, killing at least 80 people doing so.
The Conflict is Now a Global Showdown
While for the past two days the market was focusing on the Strait of Hormuz, we’re now seeing a lot more than that going on.
- First Casualty of War: This Indian Ocean naval engagement is the first major direct confrontation between US and Iranian naval vessels and it’s not going to go down well with the Iranian military.
- NATO Rushes to the Scene: NATO taking out those Iranian missiles heading for Turkey shows that this is no longer a simple Middle Eastern conflict – it’s now a global crisis with multiple nuclear armed alliances involved.
- Hitting the Energy Hubs: Iran has now started targeting the key energy hubs in neighboring countries, sending WTI Crude prices up 3.4% and Brent up 2.7% – this in turn has reinforced the gold price, making it the ultimate “risk-off” insurance policy.
Dollar vs Gold: A Tug of War
Gold is now caught in a battle for supremacy between a resurgent US Dollar (DXY near 99.10) and rising 10-year Treasury yields (4.11%.) With a strong US economy and some pretty impressive data (that ISM Services PMI of 56.1 being a highlight), we’re seeing a pretty big drop in expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates in March – and that’s bearish for gold.
- The Fed Has Got Cold Feet: A pretty strong US economy with ISM Services PMI of 56.1 has knocked back expectations of a March rate cut. In normal circumstances, this would be bad news for gold, but the “War Premium” is currently outweighing the interest rate headwind.
- The Central Banks Continue to Buy: Despite the ongoing price volatility, the central banks continue to be the “sticky” buyers of 2026. Poland, the Czech Republic and China are still adding to their gold reserves this year, with a massive 800 tonnes of official sector buying forecasted for the year – a stark contrast to what we’d see in normal times.
- ETF Inflows Show a Flight to Safety: US gold ETFs have seen a massive $10.5 billion in YTD inflows, as investors have started dumping their equities for the safety of gold.
Gold Price Prediction: Sellers Have the Upper Hand
The 2-hour chart is now showing gold at $5,102, after slipping below the ascending channel that took the price from $4,906 to $5,400. This marked a lower high within the structure, followed by a sharp breakdown candle that pierced short-term support at $5,187.
The 50- and 100-EMAs are now acting as resistance, with the 50-EMA at $5,187, the 100-EMA at $5,175, and the recent candlestick sequence showing sustained selling pressure. RSI has dropped to 36, close to oversold territory, but no divergence has yet been signalled.
Immediate support is at $5,071, followed by $4,996 and the base of the channel at $4,906. A recovery above $5,187 would stabilise the structure, but a failure to hold $5,071 could see the price drop towards $5,000.
The Analyst’s Verdict: A Prime Buying Opportunity
As a respected analyst, I strongly advise buying the dip into the $5,100-$5,130 zone. While J.P. Morgan still sees its headline grabbing $6,300 target for late 2026, everything in the short term is up to the headlines out of the Strait of Hormuz and NATO for the time being.
Trade Idea: Look for long positions above $5,187, target $5,300; in turn, sell below sustained break below $5,070, targeting $4,996, with stop loss above $5,190.
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