Silver Price Prediction: Will the $72.75 Trendline Breakdown Trigger a $67.35 Liquidation?

Quick overview

As of Thursday, April 2, 2026, the silver market has just undergone a sharp “regime shift” that’s left it reeling. After a half-hearted attempt to claw its way back above $76 on April 1, silver has taken a 4.5% plunge, with prices now trading in the $70.80-$71.70 range. This is a brutal sell-off that has decisively blown the ascending trendline that had supported the recovery from March’s lows, right out of the water. We’re starting to think that the “bull trap” has well and truly sprung.

The main reason for today’s weakness is a broader de-risking phase across the metals complex, which is being driven by a resurgent US Dollar and shifting expectations around what the Federal Reserve is going to do with interest rates in Q2. Despite the long-term narrative that the US is heading for its 6th consecutive year of structural deficits, short-term technical damage is now calling the shots.

Fundamental Drivers: The “Industrial Tug-of-War” vs. The Dollar Going on a Tear

Silver’s hybrid nature is working against it at the moment, as macro headwinds keep intensifying:

• The Dollar’s on Fire: With President Trump’s Middle East comments suggesting there’s no immediate end to the conflict in sight, investors are piling back into the Dollar as a safe-haven play. That’s the main reason for the 4.5% drop in silver today – it’s the classic “safe-haven rotation” out of silver and into the Greenback.
• The “Mule” scrutiny & Institutional Flows: While India opening up mutual funds to silver is a big long-term demand driver – we’re talking a massive game-changer – short-term liquidity is being squeezed for now. Analysts at J.P. Morgan are still predicting an $81/oz average for 2026, but they’re warning that the near-term moves are going to be totally dependent on what the Fed says about interest rates.
• Supply-Side Deficit: The fundamental floor is still anchored by a 67-million-ounce deficit – but as we’ve seen in previous cycles, physical deficits often get pushed to the back of the queue when there are high levels of volatility in the Dollar.

XAG/USD Technical Analysis: The $72.70 Support Has Given Way

From a purely technical perspective, silver’s 4-hour chart has now turned sharply bearish. The break below the recovery trendline and the 50-SMA ($72.68) has blown the recent sequence of higher lows out of the water.

Get a Read on the Pulse: The RSI has plummeted to 43, which is a rapid exit of buying pressure. The “bear flag” pattern that some analysts spotted on the daily chart is now resolving to the downside – and that’s telling us the path of least resistance is towards $67.00.

Trade Idea: Selling the Breakdown

The ascending structure has been disrupted – so the technical bias has now shifted to “selling the rallies”.

• Bearish Scenario (Continuation): If silver fails to get back above $72.70 on a 4-hour close, then look to short it. Target the $67.34 demand zone and potentially $61.55.
• Bullish Scenario (Fakeout): Only a decisive close back above $73.80 will tell us if the current bearish momentum is just a blip on the radar and a “bear trap”.
• Stop-Loss: Place a protective stop-loss above $73.80 to account for the high volatility in the US-NY overlap sessions.

Analyst Verdict: Silver is in a full-blown liquidation phase right now. The break below $72.70 is a major technical warning sign. While the $81 year-end targets remain valid on a fundamental basis – we’re still talking $81/oz averages – the “paper market” is in the driving seat for now. Until the Dollar rally cools off or there’s a fresh industrial demand spark, silver is vulnerable to a retest of the sub-$68.00 region.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

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