USOIL Rebounds to $98 as Fragile US-Iran Ceasefire Keeps Hormuz Risks Alive – $100 Break or Fresh Drop to $91?
USOIL (WTI Crude Oil) is hovering in the $98.00–$99.00 per barrel range as of April 10, 2026 - a modest recovery of about 0.7-4 %...
Quick overview
- USOIL (WTI Crude Oil) is currently trading between $98.00 and $99.00 per barrel, showing a modest recovery after a significant price drop.
- The recent rebound follows a dramatic 15-17% crash on April 8 due to a US-Iran ceasefire announcement, which raised skepticism about its stability.
- Geopolitical tensions and supply concerns continue to drive market sentiment, with traders cautious about the potential for further price increases.
- Technical analysis indicates WTI is in a short-term bearish trend, with key resistance at $101.30 and support around $97.50.
USOIL (WTI Crude Oil) is hovering in the $98.00–$99.00 per barrel range as of April 10, 2026 – a modest recovery of about 0.7-4 % after a pretty dramatic price drop recently. May 2026 contracts have been all over the place, closing some days around $97.87–$98.60, while others are trying to break through to $100 but ultimately settling back down.
Why USOIL is Rebounding towards $98 today
After the massive 15-17% crash on April 8 due to the US-Iran ceasefire announcement, prices have started to creep back up as people start questioning if the truce is actually going to stick and the Strait of Hormuz is still either shut down or severely restricted.
Recent Price Action
WTI crashed down as much as $18-$22 in one day on April 8 – that’s the biggest drop the market has seen in a long time – after the ceasefire announcement sent prices plummeting into the low-to-mid $90s, bottoming out at $91. The deal was supposed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz ( a major oil shipping route that handles roughly 20% of the world’s oil trade) and get the war premium that had driven prices up to $112-$118 earlier in the week – essentially, a big fat cushion of extra money the market was willing to pay because of the risk of war. But this deal just got ripped to shreds.
Then on April 9-10, prices started to rebound by about 3-4% to hover around or above $97-$99, mainly due to reports of limited tanker traffic, Iran slapping high tolls on ships that try to pass through, and a whole bunch of fresh incidents in the region – for example, accusations of rule-breaking and Israeli actions in Lebanon. At the end of the day, despite giving back a fair bit of the gains, WTI is still way up year-to-date, sitting at a 40-60% increase in some areas.
Key Drivers Today
- Geopolitics (The Main Factor): Everyone is pretty skeptical that this ceasefire is going to stick. It may have paused the big strikes, but Iran is still shutting down ships and general activity in the area is still a major supply risk. If it all breaks down, we’re looking at a price boost.
- Supply and Demand: US crude inventories increased for the 5th straight week, which is a bit of a problem, but its a normal situation to see that kind of thing happen. Meanwhile, supply concerns in the Gulf are still there but globally.
- Market Sentiment: The initial drop prompted a whole bunch of people to go into risk-on mode, but the partial recovery shows there’s still some fear of inflation in the air. Lower prices might be a welcome relief for motorists in the short term but whether it lasts or not depends on how stable the truce is.
WTI Crude Oil – The Technical Picture
WTI on the 4 hour chart is trading in the region of $98.60 after a big rejection from the $111-$116 supply area, which is a big Fibonacci retracement level. That selloff broke below $101.30, confirming we’re in a short term bearish trend.
Price is bouncing around between $97.50 and $101.27 right now, and the 50 moving average is sitting at $101.60 – which is acting like a resistance line for now. The 200 moving average around $91.10 is providing deeper support. Now the RSI has recovered to around 40-45 – which is still in the oversold territory – so this is more of a correction bounce rather than a full reversal.
Key Levels
- Resistance: $101.30 → $104.40
- Support: $97.50 → $91.20
Trade Idea: Sell if USOIL breaks below $97.50 with a target of $91 and stop-loss above $101.30.
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