Quick overview

---

The report outlines a more strained scenario than initially expected, with rising risks for both the global economy and the balance between energy supply and demand.

The war in the Middle East continues to reshape global energy markets, adding a new chapter with Goldman Sachs revising its outlook. The investment bank warned that the scale of the conflict is already having an “unprecedented” impact on global oil supply, prompting it to raise its price forecasts for the coming months.

A Higher Floor for Oil Prices

According to Goldman Sachs analysts, Brent crude is expected to reach $90 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, while WTI is projected to hover around $83. This marks a significant upward revision from previous forecasts of roughly $80 and $75, respectively.

The adjustment reflects expectations that the normalization of exports from the Gulf—a critical artery for global supply—will take longer than previously anticipated. The bank now estimates that flows through the Strait of Hormuz will stabilize only by late June, compared to earlier projections of mid-May.

Additionally, production in the region is expected to recover more slowly, prolonging market tightness.

Upside Risks: Prices Could Reach $120

Beyond the base case, the report outlines more extreme scenarios. In a downside scenario for supply, Brent prices could slightly exceed $100 if energy trade disruptions persist through late July.

In a more severe case, Goldman Sachs sees prices approaching $120 per barrel. This scenario assumes a sustained reduction in oil transport capacity from the Gulf, with an estimated loss of 2.5 million barrels per day.

Conversely, a more favorable scenario—featuring a rapid normalization of trade, no structural damage to infrastructure, and a stronger response from the United States and OPEC—could push prices below $80.

Low Inventories and “Non-Linear” Price Moves

A key warning in the report centers on global inventory levels. Goldman Sachs expects visible oil stocks to fall to their lowest level since 2018, increasing the likelihood of sharp and unpredictable price spikes.

The bank notes that in periods of extreme scarcity, market behavior tends to become non-linear, potentially triggering more abrupt price surges than usual—especially if supply disruptions persist.

In this context, global inventories are estimated to be declining at a record pace of 11 to 12 million barrels per day in April, driven by production losses in the Persian Gulf totaling as much as 14.5 million barrels per day.