EUR/USD Holds Near 1.1780–1.1800 as US-Iran Diplomatic Hopes Ease Dollar Safe-Haven Demand

Quick overview

EUR/USD is trading around 1.1780–1.1800 on April 15, 2026 and for the moment just sort of hanging in place but still looking pretty impressive in the wake of reaching a six week high near 1.1802–1.1811 recently. The pair has pulled back a little but is still pretty resilient, rising for several days running now amid a general softening of safe-haven demand for the US dollar.

Key Drivers Today

• US-Iran Diplomatic Optimsim: With a second set of peace talks possibly set to resume soon in Pakistan, hopes that tensions over the conflict are easing and the so-called ‘war premium’ is coming off the boil. President Trump’s comments that Iran wants to make a deal, plus the ongoing mediation efforts, have allayed immediate fears that the US blockade of Iranian ports and any potential disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz will spark a major crisis. This is weighing on the US dollar as the safe-haven flows are drying up and so supporting the euro.
• The Dollar’s a bit of a Loser Today: The DXY has continued its slide to near six-week lows, and this is part of a longer term losing streak in dollar strength. Markets are getting a bit more optimistic about a ‘risk on’ environment, and the euro is benefitting from the reduced demand for the USD.
• Energy & Inflation – It’s all about Context: Now while oil prices have pulled back a bit on these diplomatic signals, European traders are still watching energy concerns on the back of the fragile truce – and traders are keeping an eye on any clearer progress on getting the Strait of Hormuz reopened.

Broader Context

EUR/USD has been on a bit of a tear over the last few days and has even probed pre-war levels as hope grows that a resolution to the Middle East crisis may be in sight. As a result, risk assets are rebounding, but its all still a bit fragile and the truce can snap at any moment – so traders are being warned to be prepared for this pair to quickly reverse and see a strengthening of the dollar.

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD remains within a clear rising trend channel, holding up quite well above 1.1770–1.1780 support – which suggests the bullish trend is still intact. The price has printed a good strong move upwards followed by a bit of tight consolidation near those recent highs – which suggests the buyers are still firmly in control, even if they are perhaps starting to take a bit of a breather and not rushing for the exits.

The 50 EMA is still on the move upwards and is now acting as a bit of a dynamic support level, while the 200 EMA is way down below – which confirms that the trend is upwards. The price is holding up well to the channel structure and we are seeing higher lows form consistently along the trendline.

When you look at the chart work, you can see small-bodied candles near resistance which suggests that we’re just seeing some consolidation, rather than the whole trend just being rejected. Meanwhile the RSI is holding near 70, which is giving a nice strong momentum reading, but is also hinting that we might be due for a bit of a cooldown over the short term.

Key Levels:

• Resistance: 1.1810–1.1850 → 1.1880–1.1900
• Support: 1.1770 → 1.1725–1.1690

Trade Idea: Buy above 1.1810 and target 1.1900, stop below 1.1770

Weekly Bias: If we stay above 1.1770, then the outlook remains bullish and we’re looking for 1.1900 – but if we fail to hold that level, then we could see a pullback down to 1.1725.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

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