Silver Price Nears Breakout as $36.65 Resistance Faces Geopolitical Test

Silver (XAG/USD) is at $36.30 and stuck in a narrowing range as geopolitics and central banks create a volatile backdrop.

Written by: Arslan Butt • Friday, June 13, 2025 • 1 min read

• Last updated: Wednesday, June 18, 2025

Quick overview

Silver (XAG/USD) is currently priced at $36.30 and is experiencing volatility due to geopolitical tensions and central bank actions.
Recent conflicts in the Middle East, particularly Israel's strikes on Iran, have increased silver's appeal as a safe-haven asset.
Market expectations for a Fed rate cut by year-end are supporting a bullish outlook for silver, as a weaker US dollar benefits its pricing.
Technical analysis indicates that silver is nearing a breakout point, with key levels to watch at $36.65 for potential upward movement.

Silver (XAG/USD) is at $36.30 and stuck in a narrowing range as geopolitics and central banks create a volatile backdrop. Israel’s recent strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities are adding to Middle East uncertainty and the US response including evacuation plans is adding to global anxiety.

In times of conflict precious metals get attention and silver is no exception. While gold stole the headlines with its move above $3,400 silver has been quietly coiling and building pressure.

Tim Waterer of KCM Trade said “safe-haven demand has overtaken trade focused sentiment” highlighting silver’s appeal as a hedge against geopolitical instability and inflation risks.

Fed Rate Cut Bets Support Bullish Case

Beyond geopolitics traders are recalibrating Fed expectations. US jobless claims are still high and May’s inflation numbers were lower than expected. Together this has pushed market bets to a September Fed rate cut of 55 basis points by year end.

This has weakened the US dollar and is good for silver priced in USD. With bond yields softening silver’s technical and macro narrative is getting more bullish.

Technicals Suggest Breakout Imminent

Silver is coiling into a symmetrical triangle on the hourly chart with converging trendlines from June 4 and June 7. The 50-EMA at $36.29 is acting as support and MACD is showing mild bullish divergence with a potential crossover.

Silver Price Chart - Source: Tradingview — Silver Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

Breakout trigger: $36.65
Targets: $36.89 and $37.12
Support zone: $36.02, $35.73
Stop-loss: Below $36.02

A close above $36.65 with volume may trigger a big move. Failure to hold $36.02 could see silver back to $35.46. With macro catalysts in place and price structure compressing silver is getting close to a decision point. Whether it breaks out or down this is one to watch.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.