Can Bitcoin Defend $86,000 Amid Fading Momentum and Supercycle Hopes?
As the top cryptocurrency moves into a crucial stage that might decide whether it stabilizes or prolongs losses into early 2025, Bitcoin is
Quick overview
- Bitcoin is currently trading at $86,000, facing technical challenges and macroeconomic pressures after a significant drop from its October highs.
- Analysts suggest that Bitcoin must break above $88,000 to regain bullish momentum, with potential downside targets at $83,000 and $80,000.
- Despite short-term bearish trends, Bitcoin's weekly support remains intact, with risks of a drop to around $78,000 if momentum fails to improve.
- Some analysts propose that current market conditions may indicate a shift towards a longer bull market rather than a traditional bear cycle.
As the top cryptocurrency moves into a crucial stage that might decide whether it stabilizes or prolongs losses into early 2025, Bitcoin BTC/USD is trading at $86,000, down 1.7% in the last day. BTC is currently dealing with a combination of technical difficulties and growing macroeconomic pressure after falling more than 30% from its early October highs.
Short-Term Bearish Structure Dominates
As Bitcoin battles to recover important resistance levels, the immediate technical picture is still clearly unfavorable. According to cryptocurrency analyst Michael Van De Poppe, Bitcoin has been decisively rejected above overhead resistance, indicating that the short-term slump is still well under control. A clear break above $88,000 is necessary for bulls to regain momentum; otherwise, downward liquidity targets become more likely.
Clear downside objectives are identified by Van De Poppe’s analysis: a test of the $83,000 liquidity zone, where stop-losses cluster, and $80,000 if that level is not met. The timing may hasten volatility toward these levels because it falls during a busy week of macroeconomic events, including the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement.
Weekly Support Holds But Risks Remain
Bitcoin’s weekly structure has not entirely collapsed, despite the short-term momentum deteriorating. According to Crypto Damus, after being rejected at $93,000, Bitcoin is still holding above the crucial weekly support zone of $86,000, which is supported by the 100-week moving average. Deeper negative outcomes are still possible, though. Bitcoin may drop to the April low of about $78,000 if it fully retraces toward the rising wedge breakdown objective, but for patient investors, $70,000 might be a high-conviction buying opportunity.
Is Bitcoin Breaking the Four-Year Cycle Pattern?
A CryptoQuant research questions the notion that current correction portends a conventional bear market, notwithstanding recent downturn. The analysis presents the Bitcoin Supercycle thesis, which contends that a longer bull market may be replacing the traditional halving-driven cycle.
This notion is supported by significant structural changes. Issuers like BlackRock have implemented spot Bitcoin ETFs for institutional adoption, which has resulted in steady, regulated demand that views Bitcoin as a strategic asset allocation rather than a speculative investment. This is supported by on-chain metrics: the Spent Output Profit Ratio stays reasonable without the exuberant surges that characterize cycle tops, while exchange reserves go lower, indicating long-term accumulation.
An extended bull market that defies conventional patterns could be supported by macroeconomic variables including geopolitical instability and possible monetary easing, as well as infrastructure improvements throughout the cryptocurrency ecosystem.
BTC/USD Technical Analysis: Consolidation With Downside Bias
The 4-hour chart of Bitcoin shows a brittle structure close to important support. The 200-period moving average serves as dynamic resistance between $92,000 and $93,000 when the price is trading below $90,000. Attempts to rebound have stopped during the latest sell-off, generating lower highs and lower lows that support the short-term downtrend. Weakening bounces are visible in the current consolidation around $86,000–$87,000, suggesting little demand.
The crucial support range is $85,000–86,000. Selling would probably pick up speed in the mid-$70,000s if there was a persistent breach below. For bulls to significantly change momentum, they must decisively regain $90,000 and be accepted above declining moving averages.
Bitcoin Price Predictions Converge on $65,000-$75,000 Range
A number of analysts have united around comparable downside targets. Even a drop below $70,000, according to cryptocurrency trader Jackis, wouldn’t be like prior bear markets but rather would show a shift in supply from early holders to institutions, an indication of market maturity.
A possible bullish divergence is developing on the three-day chart of Bitcoin, according to market expert Jelle. Although confirmation takes time and consolidation, such divergences have previously coincided with local bottoms.
Although bases take time to establish, Julien Bittel notes that Bitcoin typically follows clear comeback paths after oversold RSI readings below 30. The current phase is part of a larger wave structure that has produced 105% compound annual gain over 145 weeks, according to Jurrien Timmer of Fidelity. While admitting that there may be a pullback into the $65,000–$75,000 region, he highlights that these areas have historically been good places to accumulate, and that modeling points to a possible path reaching $300,000 by 2029.
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