Gold Price Forecast: $5,175 Support Holds as Symmetrical Triangle Teases a $5,400 Breakout

Quick overview

As of March 10, 2026, the gold market (XAU/USD) is experiencing a period of tight volatility. Gold is trading between $5,170 and $5,180, having moved up from its previous $5,000 support level. Despite recent geopolitical shifts, including President Trump’s comments about a possible end to the war with Iran, which led to a 28% drop in oil prices, gold prices have stayed steady. This shows that institutional investors remain cautious and are still valuing gold as a safe haven.

Gold is currently about 0.8% higher than its Monday lows and is moving within a narrowing symmetrical triangle pattern. This setup suggests that a big price move could happen soon, depending on whether there is a formal ceasefire in the Middle East or new guidance from the Federal Reserve about the delayed June rate cut.

The Geopolitical Tug-of-War: Trump Rhetoric vs. Iranian Reality

Today’s gold price movements show the ongoing tension between political news and real-world risks. While the “Trump Effect” caused energy prices to fall sharply on Monday, it has only slightly slowed gold’s steady rise over the past few months.

• Gold’s safe-haven appeal remains strong. Even though some say the war is “pretty much complete,” the Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s disagreement has kept concerns about the Strait of Hormuz and its risk premium in place.
• Although lower oil prices usually hurt inflation hedges like gold, many Wall Street strategists, including Ed Yardeni, still worry about stagflation. Some investors are taking advantage of the recent dip to $5,100 to buy gold, concerned that renewed tensions could push prices up to $6,000.
• Emerging market central banks are still buying gold at record levels. This strong demand helps keep gold prices from falling back to where they were in 2025, even if the US dollar gets stronger in the short term.

Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Outlook: The $5,288 Breakout Trigger

Looking at the technical charts, gold is showing a steady, step-by-step recovery. On the 4-hour chart, the price is moving within a triangle pattern, supported by the 50-EMA and the $5,175 level.

The RSI is moving up toward 55, showing that momentum is improving but not yet overbought. This means there is still plenty of buying power waiting to enter the market if gold closes above the $5,200 mark on a 4-hour chart.

Trade Idea: Buying the Squeeze

Consider entering a long position if gold closes above $5,288 on a 4-hour chart, aiming for the Goldman Sachs year-end target of $5,415. Set a stop-loss below the recent low at $5,147 to protect against a false breakout.

In 2026, gold continues to serve as the top choice for managing uncertainty. While oil prices respond to news, gold prices reflect deeper changes in global power. If gold stays above $5,147, it is likely to keep moving higher.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

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