Bitcoin Reclaims $72,000 as US-Iran Ceasefire Ignites Relief Rally and Bull Phase Indicators
Despite miner selling and bearish options posture tempering optimistic expectations, Bitcoin reports a 4.8% rise in a day as long-term
Quick overview
- Bitcoin reports a 4.8% rise in a day as long-term holders accumulate and ETF inflows return, despite miner selling and bearish options posture.
- A ceasefire announcement between the US and Iran catalyzed a significant price increase, with Bitcoin surpassing $72,000 for the first time since March 18.
- On-chain data shows a substantial increase in accumulating wallets, indicating long-term holders are buying into weakness while miners continue to sell off reserves.
- Technical analysis suggests that a sustained daily close over $75,000 could signal a structural change, with key support levels at $70,000 and $67,000.
Despite miner selling and bearish options posture tempering optimistic expectations, Bitcoin BTC/USD reports a 4.8% rise in a day as long-term holders accumulate and ETF inflows return.
For the majority of Q1 2026, Bitcoin was stuck below $70,000 due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainty brought on the US military operations against Iran and the partial closing of the Strait of Hormuz. The news of a ceasefire provides the catalyst that markets have been waiting for. When President Trump declared a two-week halt to bombing operations and Iran’s Supreme National Security Council affirmed its acceptance of the truce, that all changed immediately.
After the announcement, Bitcoin increased by 2.6% in just one hour, surpassing $72,000 for the first time since March 18. This is a typical geopolitical relief rally, the kind that cryptocurrency markets have historically generated when a significant macro overhang abruptly lifts, even if only momentarily.
Ceasefire News Delivers the Catalyst Markets Were Waiting for
On-chain data reveals a positive picture beneath the surface price action. According to CryptoQuant statistics, accumulating address cohorts, or wallets that contribute Bitcoin on a regular basis with little withdrawal, now contain a total of 4.37 million BTC, a significant increase from about 2 million BTC in early 2024. During this time, pattern-accumulating wallets increased to 1.29 million BTC, whereas retail-linked wallets added about 857,000 BTC.
Long-term holders were buying into weakness since all of this accumulation took place while the price was capped below $70,000. Concurrently, the CryptoQuant Bitcoin Network Activity Index officially entered a “bull phase” categorization last observed in April 2025, rising over its 365-day moving average for the first time since December 2024.
Long-term Holders Quietly Building the Foundation for the Next Leg Up
Not everything is pointing upward. Sell pressure has consistently come from miners that are publicly traded. Riot Platforms moved 1,500 BTC for sale in the first week of April, while MARA Holdings moved 250 BTC on Tuesday and sold 15,133 BTC in March. In order to pay off debt incurred during the Bitcoin bull market and to finance a strategic shift toward AI data centers, a number of miners are selling off reserves.
Miner Selling, Weak Hashrate, and Put-Heavy Options Markets Complicate the Picture
Additionally, the hashrate of Bitcoin has decreased from 1,083 exahashes in late February to 953 exahashes, indicating that some miners are shutting down unprofitable rigs. Put contracts are trading at a 17% premium over calls at Deribit in the options markets, indicating a widespread desire among retail participants for downside protection.
BTC/USD Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch
Technically speaking, the $72,000 recovery is significant but not yet conclusive. The high on March 18 has been surpassed by Bitcoin, and it now serves as short-term support. A number of breakout efforts in late 2025 were stopped by the important resistance band, which is located between $74,000 and $75,000.
A persistent daily close over $75,000 would indicate a structural change and pave the way for the all-time high area around $109,000. The main support level on the downside is $70,000, which is followed by $67,000, which held during the most recent test in Q1. The short-term bias would return to neutral-to-bearish if $70,000 was not held on any retest.
30-Day Target Price Ranges
- Bull case (ceasefire holds, ETF inflows sustain): $78,000–$82,000
- Base case (range-bound consolidation): $68,000–$75,000
- Bear case (miner capitulation, geopolitical relapse): $58,000–$63,000
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