Quick overview

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U.S. grain markets rallied sharply on Monday, with soybeans, corn and wheat posting strong gains in Chicago after renewed optimism over Chinese demand for American agricultural exports.

The rally followed an announcement from the White House stating that China had committed to purchase at least $17 billion in U.S. agricultural products over the next three years, amid a broader thaw in trade relations between the two largest economies.

Wheat led the advance, jumping 3.5% to $242.04 per metric ton. Soybeans rose 2.2% to $442.02, while corn gained 3.1% to $185.23.

The move came after President Donald Trump met with Chinese President Xi Jinping last week, with Washington signaling that Beijing has agreed to significantly expand its agricultural imports.

According to the White House, the deal does not include previously agreed soybean purchases from October 2025. Market participants had not expected China to lift its soybean import target above 25 million metric tons.

Despite the announcement, Chinese agricultural imports from the U.S. still face a 10% tariff, a legacy of earlier trade retaliation rounds that continue to weigh on bilateral flows.

Signs of broader trade easing

China’s Ministry of Commerce said both countries are also working toward broader trade liberalization, including potential reciprocal tariff reductions across a wide range of goods, though no specific measures were detailed.

Weather risks add support to wheat

Beyond geopolitics, wheat prices were also supported by weather concerns in the United States. According to Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist at StoneX, expected rainfall in the U.S. Plains may arrive too late to prevent further damage to winter wheat crops and could even worsen field conditions.

At the same time, European traders noted that elevated U.S. domestic wheat prices are already pushing American buyers to import grain from Poland, highlighting tightening supply dynamics in the market.