CryptoQuant’s Bull-Bear Indicator Flips Green for First Time Since 2023

CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin bull-bear cycle indicator turned green May 12. First time since March 2023. Julio Moreno, their on-chain analyst, called it an important regime-change signal while noting past instances haven’t always led to sustained rallies.

The indicator moving out of bear territory and into early bull zone has historically marked the end of the worst correction phase. Moreno pointed to 2019 and early 2023 as examples where green readings preceded stronger bullish trends. March 2022 was the exception – turned green, then market dove deeper into downtrend shortly after.

Bitcoin’s up about 35% from $60K lows hit in February. Problem is it keeps failing at $82K. Multiple attempts this month, can’t break through clean. Moreno said clearing that level decisively is necessary to confirm the bullish shift the indicator’s suggesting.

Mati Greenspan from Quantum Economics called it a regime-shift tool, not a trading signal. Said it’s most useful for identifying when BTC stops acting like a bear-market asset. Real confirmation comes from sustained demand, liquidity, and price actually holding at higher levels after the signal fires.

The May 2026 reading’s messier than prior early-cycle entries. Fear & Greed index sitting neutral. Macro environment’s more complex than previous cycles. Moreno mentioned the 30-day moving average recovery suggests improving momentum underneath, but price action needs to back it up.

Arthur Hayes from Maelstrom thinks BTC already found its cycle bottom at $60K. He’s eyeing $90K as the level where momentum accelerates toward the prior high near $126K. Didn’t mention the CryptoQuant indicator specifically but his view aligns with the bullish structure signal.

Jason Fernandes from AdLunam said metrics like MVRV and NUPL get misread as precise buy/sell signals. They’re better for understanding where BTC sits in the broader liquidity cycle. The green reading supports a recovery thesis but doesn’t replace needing on-chain and price confirmation.

Here’s the catch. This indicator’s been wrong before. March 2022 flipped green right before things got way worse. So treating it as gospel is dangerous. It’s one data point among many. Useful for context, not for making decisions alone.

$82K is what matters now. Everything else is just noise until Bitcoin either breaks that resistance or fails again and heads lower. The indicator says market structure might be recovering. Price needs to prove it.