Quick overview

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 Silver is riding a massive wave of momentum. However, this relief rally comes on the heels of a brutal multi-month correction. After skyrocketing past $100/oz earlier in January 2026, spot silver retraced heavily, hitting a seven-month low near $55.69 in late June.

 

 Having broken below its critical $64.50 multi-month support floor in June, the current rally is facing heavy resistance. Analysts note that the chart structure remains fragile unless it can cleanly reclaim its intermediate moving averages.

JP Morgan Global Research: Forecasts silver to stabilize and average $81.00 / oz over the course of 2026.

Wall Street Consensus (Expert Range): Targets a cluster in the high-$70s to low-$80s by year-end, pointing out that any sustained macroeconomic softening of the US Dollar will trigger sharp upward volatility

:The primary fuse for this week’s surge was the dismal US labor data. June non-farm payrolls came in at a weak 57,000 against the 110,000 expected. This drastically cooled Wall Street’s expectations of near-term Federal Reserve interest rate hikes (the priced-in probability of a September hike dropped from 67% to below 50%). A retreating US dollar and plunging Treasury yields immediately unlocked a massive surge into precious metals.

 The sharp intraday price action was highly exacerbated by algorithms triggering short-covering buy-stops during low-volume holiday trading ahead of the US July 4th weekend.

:Silver’s structural backdrop is highly complex right now. On one side, it remains in its sixth consecutive year of a physical supply deficit due to aggressive consumption in EV infrastructure and AI hardware. On the other side, solar manufacturers have begun actively “thrifting” (reducing the amount of silver used per solar cell) to mitigate high commodity input costs, creating a near-term headwind on industrial demand elasticity.