Brace yourselves, for the European Central Bank is Coming
Today is an important day for both the Euro pairs and the European bonds. The ECB will publish their rate decision at 12:45 GMT and 45 minutes later the ECB president Draghi will hold a press conference where he will let us know the future monetary policy of the ECB. The market has been expecting the ECB to set negative rates and add additional measures for their QE program. That was the consensus last week, but this week three more key data for the ECB decision were scheduled; the manufacturing PMIs from the major European countries, the unemployment, and the inflation.
What will the ECB decision be?
The manufacturing and employment numbers came slightly better than expected but nothing to be too excited about. The inflation numbers, on the other hand, were quite soft and the inflation is the mandate of the ECB, so that is the main key rapport the ECB was looking at. The inflation published at 0.1% below expectations and the core numbers came 0.2% below last month´s number. So, that pumped up the market hopes for a stronger intervention by the ECB. Then, a couple of hours later Bloomberg had an article with some ECB leaks, commenting that the actions won´t be too drastic. The Euro jumped about 100 pips in a late US session yesterday, but has declined all night and this morning we found it near the lows. We opened a EUR/USD sell forex signal last night and it closed in profit a few hours later. We also have an open sell forex signal on EUR/GBP, which we might close manually ahead of the rate decision. So, what will the ECB decide? Whatever they do decide, the market will be hectic, so we’d better stay out till the waters calm down. If we see a good opportunity though, we will of course take our chances.
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