What to expect from the RBNZ and how the Kiwi will be affected

Posted Wednesday, August 10, 2016 by
Skerdian Meta • 2 min read

The economic data is very light today and apart from the US crude oil inventories, which might have some effect on the Candian Dollar, there are no other market moving releases scheduled. The only important economic event today is the RBNZ (Royal Bank of New Zealand) interest rate decision and the following statement in the evening. Let´s have a look at all the scenarios of this event.

Rate cut + neutral/hawkish statement – If the RBNZ cuts the interest rates which is the consensus and the statement is not dovish then we might see a 50-100 pip tumble. That will be a good chance to open a long term buy forex signal since the trend is up in this pair.

 Rate cut + dovish statement – If the RBNZ cuts the interest rates and delivers a dovish rate statement, then the dip will be deeper. The depth of the retrace down depends on how dovish the statement will be. The 100 smooth and simple moving averages at 0.71 might be a nice place to open a buy forex signal but the perfect place with the best risk/reward ratio is 0.70, but I wonder will dive that deep, unless the rate statement is very dovish. 

The 0.71 level seems like a nice spot to open a buy forex signal since the two moving averages stand there on the H4 forex chart

No rate cut – The consensus is for a 20 bps (basis points) interest rate cut. The market is expecting that, so if the RBNZ disappoints the forex market expectations, then it´s very likely that we see  200-300 pip surge in the following trading sessions.  

Rate cut + a hint for another rate cut – The only scenario that might reverse the uptrend in NZD/USD is if the RBNZ cuts the interest rates and delivers a very dovish rate statement, hinting another interest rate cut soon. That would scare the buyers of this forex pair and it will give the sellers the upper hand. 


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