Employment jumps higher in the US

US Employment Report Looks Bad But It’s Good

Posted Friday, January 4, 2019 by
Skerdian Meta • 1 min read

The US employment report was released a while ago while I was posting the European session forex brief. We covered it live on our forex calendar if you want to go and have a look at it. At first glance, it looked pretty bad as the unemployment rate jumped two points higher to 3.9% from 3.7% previously.

But if you look at the details of this report where the devil hides, things are not that bad. Instead, this report was pretty good. Earnings jumped by 0.4% in December while non-farm employment change surged 312k higher, against 179k expected. Let’s see all the numbers in the table below:

Unemployment Rate 3.9%3.7%3.7%
Participation Rate63.1%62.9%62.9%
Non-Farm Employment Change312k179k155k
Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.4%0.3%0.2%
Average Hourly Earnings YoY 3.2%3.0%3.0%

As you can see, all the numbers are higher against expectations. A higher number is not good for the unemployment rate, but the participation rate also increased two points higher from 62.9% previously to 63.1%. A higher number of people filing for unemployment has affected the unemployment rate which also increased by 2 points.

Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% in December which is the biggest monthly increase for this year together with the increase in August. The YoY average earnings also increased to 3.2% form 3.0% previously. Non farm employment change surged higher by 312k. Although, yesterday’s jump in ADP employment gave the market a hint for today’s main employment figures. So, it is a positive report overall and the USD has reversed to bullish now.


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Olayiwola Abiodun
Olayiwola Abiodun
4 years ago

Can we now conclude that dollars will continue to put on strength against the major pairs knowing fully well that the investors are a bit skeptical about buying dollars ? I have made comments on two of your analyses today but You have not replied any , why ?