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RBA Minutes Are Out

The RBA to Remain Dovish: AUD/USD Soft

Posted Tuesday, October 15, 2019 by
Rowan Crosby • 1 min read

The RBA Minutes are out and it looks like to dovish tone is set to remain in place for some time yet.

While there was the hope that we were going to get some more specific details on when any further cuts might occur, that didn’t really happen. And what we got was more of the same.

Clearly the RBA’s focus remains on data points, with the jobless rate being the main one for the time being. Interestingly we will get Aussie jobs data out later this week, which will be the biggest release of the week by some margin.

Today the key points from the release, towed the party line:

  • board prepared to ease policy further if needed to support growth, jobs
  • reasonable to expect an extended period of low rates would be required
  • judged lower rates would still have an impact through the AUD

Again this is the same sort of stuff we have been hearing, but the AUD/USD has still started falling away for the time being.

The move post-release has really been only muted selling, but it appears the overhead resistance at 0.6800 will remain strong for the time being.

Given the bearish outlook, any pop higher and a failed attempt to make a break of that key level is a great opportunity to short.

At the same time, if price drops out the bottom of 0.6750, that would be a good short signal too.

Of course, we need to watch the jobless rate later in the week. If that can fall under 5.2-5.3%, then that could slow the fall considerably.

The headline number at the moment is making a big difference, with all the focus on the way the RBA has tied its policy to the unemployment rate.

AUD/USD
AUD/USD – 240min.
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