Daily Brief, Nov 14: Economic Events Outlook – Fed Chair Powell to Testify
Arslan Butt • 2 min read
On Thursday, the global financial markets extend trading with a risk-off sentiment, keeping GOLD and other safe-haven assets supported. Global stocks exchange indices slid as the US-China trade deal still shakes markets.
The greenback dropped against the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc, along with other safe-haven investments, following media statements that trade discussions between the US and China had “hit a snag” over farm purchases. Today, the focus stays at Fed Chair Powell’s testimony.
Watchlist – Top Economic Events Today
EUR – German Prelim GDP q/q – 7:00 GMT
The German economy shrank a seasonally-adjusted 0.1% QoQ in the 3 months to the month of June in 2019, unrevised from the preliminary evaluation, and following a 0.4% extension in the prior period.
GDP growth rate in Germany equated 0.51% from 1970 to 2019, touching an all-time high of 4% in the second quarter of 1970 and a historic low of -4.70% in the first quarter of 2009.
At 7:00 GMT, Destatis is due to release German GDP data, and economists are expecting a slight drop in the figure by -0.1%. The data is most likely to place bearish pressure on the EUR/USD currency pair today.
The Office for National Statistics is due to release the retail sales data at 8:30 GMT. It’s the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. In November, the retail sales showed a growth rate of 0% vs. the forecast of -0.1%, extending solid support to Sterling.
This month, economists are expecting a surge of 0.2% in retail sales. A positive number of sales indicate a boost in inflation and growth in the economy. Therefore, the Sterling bulls may remain active today.
USD – Fed Chair Powell Testifies – 15:00 GMT
The Federal Reserve is due to testify on the economy before the House Budget Committee in Washington DC at 15:00 GMT. Investors will tune in for any signs on monetary policy, as Powell is expected to be questioned on the fresh rate decreases and the subsequent ‘pause’ his central bank published.
USD – WTI Crude Oil Inventories – 16:00 GMT
A day before, the American Petroleum Institute (API) has evaluated a crude oil stock drawdown of 541K barrels for the week concluding November 7, compared to analyst forecasts of a 1.649-million-barrel build.
Last week marked a build in crude oil stocks of 4.26 million barrels, as per the API report. The EIA’s forecasts, however, published a build of 7.9-million barrels for that week. Following today’s inventory movement, the net draw for the year remains at 8.76 million barrels for the 46-week.
At 16:00 GMT, the EIA (Energy Information Administration) is expected to report a build of 1.5 million barrels of build in crude oil prices, which may keep oil prices bearish today.
Check out the FX Leaders economic calendar for the live coverage of these major events.