GBP/USD Tight Ahead Of Election

For the third consecutive session, the GBP/USD is in heavy rotation. Rates are trading just above the 1.2850 level and in a noncommittal technical area on the daily timeframe. Although the intermediate-term picture is bullish, one has to wonder if price action is going to consolidate further ahead of the 12 December U.K. snap election.

With the U.K. election a little over two weeks away, current outlooks are heavily favoring a conservative victory. As of this writing, the odds at political wagering website Predictit.org show Boris Johnson to have an 80% chance of winning the Prime Ministership in December. Opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn comes in a distant second. Currently, Corbyn’s odds show a modest 18% chance of a Labour party victory. 

For the moment, the GBP/USD isn’t in a hurry to go much of anywhere. Currency players appear happy with rates near 1.2850, holding firm in longer-term bullish territory.

GBP/USD Enters Heavy Rotation

The see-saw action has continued for the GBP/USD throughout today’s session. 1.2878 appears to be set up as a key technical level and a driver of two-way participation in this market.

As we roll toward Thanksgiving holiday trading, there are three levels that will stay on my radar:

• Resistance(1): October High, 1.3008
• 2-Way Catalyst: Daily SMA/Bollinger MP, 1.2878
• Support(1): 38% October Rally, 1.2697

Overview: For a trading opportunity to set up in the GBP/USD, we are going to have to see the action pick up significantly. However, the daily uptrend remains valid and a bullish bias is warranted. Barring a major shift in the U.K.’s political winds ahead of the December election, it appears that rates will be positioned to make another move higher ahead of 2020’s commencement.