EUR/USD Might Turn Bearish, If the 100 SMA Turns From Support Into Resistance

The Euro has turned massively bullish since the middle of May, when the European Central Bank announced it would start the PEPP programme, to help stimulate the economy. In normal times that would have sent the Euro down, since more Euro cash in the markets means a cheaper Euro, but the opposite has taken place.

EUR/USD turned bullish and climbed around 12 cents until August/September last year, where it stalled for some time. That big resistance level was broken eventually, on the first day of December and buyers kept pushing this pair higher. Although, we saw a bearish retreat two weeks ago, which took the price down to 1.2050. Now the area above 1.20 as turned into resistance for EUR/USD.

This week the price has increased, but the climb stalled at the 100 SMA (green) today. This moving average used to work as support, so if it is turning into resistance now, it means that buyers are in control and this is a pullback higher before the decline resumes again. If it gets broken, then the decline to 1.2050 was a retrace lower before the larger bullish trend resumes.

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Skerdian Meta

Lead Analyst

Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.

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