AUD/USD has turned bearish on the longer-term charts since May last year, as the USD started turning bullish against most major currencies.n  The dollar had been on a steep downtrend before, due to the vast amounts of USD that have been thrown in the markets by the FED and US government. But, inflation started surging beyond reasonable levels last summer in the US and the FED was forced to accept that it was getting out of control.

They started turning hawkish, suggesting a tapering of the stimulus programmes soon and the USD turned bullish, sending AUD/USD down. This month we have seen a pullback higher and today’s employment report from Australia helped this forex pair bounce off the 200 SMA (purple) on the daily chart.

Now, the Aussie is starting to show more solid signs of a rebound with AUD/USD climbing back up to 0.7210 and nearly wiping out the earlier drop from the Russia news. We should keep an eye on the daily trendline resistance above 0.83, as a close above that will help buyers keep poised in search of the next leg higher in the pair.

The Reserve bank of Australia has really turned as hawkish as the rest of major central banks and particularly the FED, but inflation is a lot lower in Australia, while restrictions continue down there. So, the RBA doesn’t have that much pressure to hike interest rates.

AUD/USD Daily Chart – The 200 SMA Has Turned Into Support

AUD/USD looking bullish, as long as it stays above the 200 SMA

Australian January Employment Report

• January employment change: +12.9K vs 0K expected 
• December employment change 64.8K
• Unemployment  rate 4.2% (expected 4.2%)
• December unemployment rate was 4.2%
• Full-time employment change -17K
• Prior employment was 41.5K
• Part-Time Employment Change: +29.9K
• Prior part-time employment change was 23.3K
• Participation rate 66.2% expected 66.0%, rising participation rate, and the steady jobless rate is encouraging (note there were 5.6K people more unemployed in the month)
• Prior participation rate was 66.1%

AUD/USD Live Chart