EUR/USD has been bearish for more than a year and it fell to 0.95 lows after breaking below parity. But, it is giving some strong signals that it wants to retrace higher at least and today buyers have pushed the price above parity. Although the real test is the 100 SMA (green) on the daily chart which has been acting as resistance at the top lately.

The USD is declining against all currencies and it’s not really clear why. There’s some risk appetite reviving once again but stocks are hardly running away with the Dow up 340 points. Bonds are experiencing some strong demand which adds up but the weakness of the USD is more than what you’d expect from yields which are down by 6 bps across the board.

So, this is a unique USD move. Looking at the FED, the terminal top is still at 5.09%, which isn’t far off the peak. A 50 bps hike on Dec 14 is at 67% compared to 33% of 75 bps. Although, the comments about the Chinese reopening, as well as the US midterm elections, are adding up, together with the need for a decent retrace higher after such a strong downtrend.

EUR/USD Live Chart