Will we see a positive surprise from retail sales?

Forex Signals Brief for November 16: UK and Canada CPI Inflation, US Retail Sales

Posted Wednesday, November 16, 2022 by
Skerdian Meta • 2 min read

Yesterday’s Market Wrap

Yesterday was supposed to be a quiet day, with only the US producer inflation report on the schedule which is not a major market mover, besides the UK earnings report. But, the day was filled with action, as the GBP turned bullish once again after the positive earnings and employment figures and GBP/USD pushed above 1.20 for the first time in three months.

Later in the US session, the producer inflation PPI (producer price index) showed a slowdown as it fell from 8.5% in September to 8.0% in October. The sentiment improved and the USD went through another air pocket as traders anticipate a further slowdown in consumer inflation CPI in the months ahead. Although the USD buyers returned toward the end of the day.

Today’s Market Expectations

Today started with the wage price index in Australia early in the Asian session, followed by the consumer inflation report from the UK, which showed a further increase in prices. Later in the day, the consumer inflation figures from Canada are also expected to show another increase for October after the cool-off in September, while the US retail sales are expected to jump by 1.0% in October after falling flat in September.

Forex Signals Update

Yesterday the volatility picked up once again after the slowdown on Monday and the USDup and down a few times. We flopped positions a few times as well and ended up with three winning and two losing signals, although we had another long term signal in Gold which closed in profit.

Trying the Downside in USD/JPY 

USD/JPY resumed the decline yesterday as it fell more than 2 cents lower after the PPI report missed expectations, less than a week after losing more than 8 cents as it crashed lower last week following the softer US inflation report. We decided to open a long term sell signal here after the retrace to the 20 SMA (gray) on the H4 chart.

USD/JPY – H1 chart

Buying GOLD at the 50 SMA Again

Gold  The 50 SMA (yellow) seems to have turned into support and yesterday we decided to open a long term buy Gold continues to remain bullish after turning bullish two weeks ago, and the 50SMA (yellow) is acting as support on the H1 chart. We are buying pullbacks at this moving average and yesterday we closed another profitable buy trade.

XAU/USD – H1 chart

Cryptocurrency Update

Cryptocurrencies were enjoying a nice bullish run but it has ended with a crash and the FTX exchange being forced to sell off, which seems like another attack from the financial establishment on the crypto market. FTX sold off to Binance, with FTX’s token FTT falling below $2. That crash got us on the wrong side since we were long on a few crypto coins, so we had a bad week here, although we’re hoping to make up for it this week.

Buyer Reapering Again in BITCOIN

Bitcoin resumed the decline last week as it fell to around $15,600 from $22,000, after having traded in a range for more than two months. The 20 SMA (gray) turned into resistance on the H4 chart and was pushing the price lower, but yesterday buyers pushed BTC above that moving average and it turned into support immediately, which shows that buyers are still here.

BTC/USD – H4 chart

ETHEREUM Testing the 200 SMA

Ethereum pushed above $1,660 early last week before the FTX bankruptcy sent ETH crashing lower and despite attempts to turn bullish, sellers still remain in control, but buyers are slowly regrouping. They have tested the 200 SMA (purple) on the H1 chart, but it provided resistance yesterday.

ETH/USD – H1 chart   
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