AUDUSD Stuck Between MAs After Australia Inflation Gauge

The USD to AUD rate was trading in a range between 65 and 66 during the first 4 months of 2024, now the range has moved 100 pips higher.

Skerdian Meta•Monday, June 3, 2024•1 min read

The USD to AUD rate was trading in a range between 65 and 66 during the first 4 months of 2024, now the range has moved 100 pips higher. The trading range now has shifted between 0.66 and 0.67, as this forex pair bounces between moving averages since early May, with inflation figures from Australia unable to induce a break out of the range. April Inflation gauge was expected at 0.1% in Australia

Last week, the Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April indicated a year-over-year (y/y) increase of 3.6%, which was above both the previous reading of 3.5% and the anticipated cooling to 3.4%. On a month-over-month (m/m) basis, the CPI rose by 0.76%. Additionally, the trimmed mean CPI, which excludes volatile items, increased to 4.1% y/y from 4.0% in the prior month.

AUD/USD Chart Daily – Forming A Bearish Reversing Patter at the 200 SMA

Despite these higher-than-expected inflation statistics, the Australian Dollar (AUD) did not experience a significant rise. This muted response can likely be attributed to a generally low risk appetite in the markets, which has weighed down commodity-linked currencies such as the AUD. AUD/USD continued to trade between the 200 SMA (purple) at the top and the 100 SMA (green) at the bottom.

Furthermore, earlier today, we received the Melbourne Institute (MI) Inflation Gauge for April, which was expected to show a 0.1% m/m increase. This report, while closely watched, did not provide a sufficient catalyst to overcome the prevailing risk-averse sentiment in the market.

Melbourne Institute (MI) April Inflation Gauge

AUD/USD Live Chart

AUD/USD

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Skerdian Meta

Lead Analyst

Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.