AUD/USD Unable to Break the Range After the Australian Q1 GDP

The USD to AUD rate continues to trade in a range, with AUD/USD bouncing between moving averages without a clear direction as traders wait for either the FED or the RBA to announce the start of interest rate cuts soon. Early this morning we had the Q1 GDP report from Australia which was expected to remain steady at 0.2%, but that didn’t offer much volatility, so the price remained within the range.

Since January this year, the AUD/USD rate has been trading in a range that has been getting higher, now trading between 0.65 and 0.66; so, the range has already shifted 100 pips higher. The trading range has now shifted between 0.66 and 0.67, as this forex pair has been bouncing between moving averages since early May, with Australian GDP figures failing to cause a break out of the range. So, AUD/USD continued to trade between the 200 SMA (purple) at the top and the 100 SMA (green) at the bottom.

AUD/USD Chart Daily – Reversing at the 200 SMA Again

Australian Q1 2024 GDP

• The GDP growth for Q1 2024 was recorded at +0.1% quarter-on-quarter (q/q), falling short of the anticipated +0.2%.
• This marks a decline from the +0.2% growth observed in Q4 of the previous year.
• On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, the GDP growth was +1.1%, slightly below the forecasted +1.2% and a significant drop from the prior +1.5%.
• The Australian Bureau of Statistics highlighted that the GDP growth was notably weak in March, with the economy experiencing its lowest annual growth rate since December 2020.
• Additionally, GDP per capita decreased for the fifth consecutive quarter, showing a decline of 0.4%. Furthermore, the Chain Price Index, an indicator of inflation, increased by 0.8% YoY, reflecting ongoing inflationary pressures within the economy.
• These figures suggest that the Australian economy is facing significant challenges, with subdued growth and persistent inflation.
• The consistent decline in GDP per capita indicates that economic expansion is not keeping pace with population growth, further underscoring the sluggish economic environment.

AUD/USD Live Chart

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Skerdian Meta

Lead Analyst

Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.

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