Bitcoin Consolidates at $111K as Fed Rate Cut Hopes Drive Bullish Sentiment
Bitcoin (BTC) is staying constant at approximately $111,000 after the Bureau of Labor Statistics made a startling change to payroll data
Quick overview
- Bitcoin remains steady at around $111,000 despite a historic job loss of 911,000 and rising unemployment.
- Technical analysis indicates a bullish trend, with potential targets of $120,000 to $129,000 if key resistance levels are broken.
- Market conditions suggest that reduced leverage and whale activity could lead to upward price movement for Bitcoin.
- The Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts may further support Bitcoin's price, aligning it with historical trends observed in the 1990s.
Bitcoin BTC/USD is staying constant at approximately $111,000 after the Bureau of Labor Statistics made a startling change to payroll data that destroyed 911,000 jobs, the biggest drop in history. Even though unemployment rose to 4.3% and there were only 22,000 new jobs in August instead of the predicted 75,000, Bitcoin has been surprisingly strong as traders get ready for any policy changes from the Federal Reserve.
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation is still high at 2.9%. This makes it more likely that risk assets will do well when central banks lower interest rates. With a 92% chance, bond traders are banking for a 25 basis point rate cut in September, followed by possibly two more cuts before the end of the year.
BTC/USD Technical Analysis: Bullish Patterns Target $120K-$129K
Inverse Head-and-Shoulders Formation Points to Major Breakout
The four-hour chart shows that Bitcoin has made a clear inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. The neckline resistance level is $113,650. If this level breaks out, it might start a rally toward $120,000, which would be a gain of 5.5% from where it is now.
The pattern is more important now that Bitcoin has bounced back from the bottom trendline of a rising wedge formation, which suggests that bullish momentum is growing. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has settled above 50, which has historically been the point at which market circumstances go from neutral to bullish.
Moving Average Convergence Signals Potential Trend Shift
Bitcoin’s 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) are becoming closer to each other near current levels. If these indicators close above these levels, they might change from resistance to support, which would set the stage for continued higher movement. Weekly analysis shows that Bitcoin is still trading above its 20-week EMA at over $108,500, which supports the bullish structure.
Fed Policy Implications: 1990s Playbook Suggests Major Upside
The current state of the US economy is similar to the early 1990s recession, when the Federal Reserve lowered rates from 8.25% to 3% even though core PCE inflation was 4% and unemployment was 6.8%. Stocks sank by more than 20% at first, but then they rose by more than 30% when borrowing became cheaper and growth picked up.
Gold had already gone up 40% this year, even before the jobs report, because traders have been “pricing in weaker job numbers for months.” Bitcoin’s 20.30% rise in 2025 shows that it may follow gold’s path, especially as they have historically lagged behind each other amid changes in monetary policy. Commentator on the market The Kobeissi Letter says that “asset owners will reap the rewards” when the Fed lowers rates in a sluggish job market.
Market Structure: Reduced Leverage Creates Upside Potential
Recent data from Binance shows that whale activity has dropped a lot. The BTC Exchange Whale Ratio went from 0.55 to 0.28 in just two days. This lessening of selling pressure from big holders makes it easier for prices to go up.
Flattening open interest and lower leverage across futures markets show that speculative positioning is cooling up. The Integrated Market Index has stabilized around the neutral 45–50 level, which means that buyers and sellers are about equal. Bitcoin’s price momentum has gone from -8% to -5% in the previous week, which could mean that the market is leaving its “repair zone.”
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Multiple Targets Converge on $129K
According to technical analysis, the main goal is the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level of $129,000, which means there is a 12–15% chance of the price going up. This is in line with breakout targets from the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern and rising wedge rebound targets.
Bitcoin needs to close over the $115,000-$116,000 resistance line in a strong way for the positive scenario to happen. If this breakthrough happens, it will probably increase purchasing pressure and represent the next big step in Bitcoin’s bull cycle toward new all-time highs above $124,500.
The trend line at $111,000 and the 20-week EMA at $108,500 are both strong levels of immediate support. This means that any short-term drops will have a strong base to build on. The technical setup suggests that the current consolidation is building up momentum for the next big upward run, and changes in Fed policy could be what brings Bitcoin back to its all-time highs.
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