Bitcoin Struggles Below $110K as Key Holders Shed $1.9B Despite Historic Fear Signal
Bitcoin is trading above $109,000, down about 2.3% in the last 24 hours. The world's most popular cryptocurrency is under a lot of pressure
Quick overview
- Bitcoin is currently trading above $109,000, experiencing a 2.3% decline in the last 24 hours due to selling pressure from major market players.
- Technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, with critical resistance at $110,500 and support levels at $108,000 and below.
- Recent on-chain data reveals significant selling by large investors and long-term holders, indicating potential future selling pressure.
- The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has dropped to a yearly low, prompting some analysts to view this as a potential buying opportunity.
Bitcoin BTC/USD is trading above $109,000, down about 2.3% in the last 24 hours. The world’s most popular cryptocurrency is under a lot of pressure from big market players who are all selling at the same time and investors who are feeling less positive about it.
BTC/USD Technical Breakdown Signals Further Downside Risk
Bitcoin is in a negative phase after failing to break through the important $113,000 resistance barrier. It has now fallen below both the $110,000 psychological level and its 100-hour simple moving average. The Bitcoin momentarily hit a local low of $107,483 before bouncing up a little.
Technical indicators make the short-term price activity look bad. The hourly MACD is getting faster in bearish zone, and the Relative Strength Index has dropped below 50, which means that momentum is getting weaker. There is a bearish trend line with resistance at $110,500. This means that bulls must break through this ceiling to halt the present downturn.
The first big problem is the trend line at $110,500, which is in the immediate resistance zone between $109,500 and $110,000. If Bitcoin breaks above this level, it might go up to $111,800, which is the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the latest drop from the $115,975 swing high. If the price goes up more, it may reach $112,500 and then $113,000.
But if they don’t get back the $110,000, there could be another leg down. There are support levels at $108,000, $107,500, $106,200, and $105,500, with the primary support zone at $103,200. If this important level breaks, it could mean that the market will stay weak for a while.
BTC Whale Distribution and Long-Term Holder Exodus
On-chain data shows that Bitcoin’s biggest investors are giving away a lot of coins. Between October 12 and 14, sharks and whales who owned between 10 and 10,000 BTC sold a total of 17,554 coins, which is around $1.9 billion. This is the first big event where people have taken profits since late August, when a similar sell-off led to more buying.
Long-term holders, who are usually thought to be the most stable hands in the market, are acting more worryingly. In the last 30 days, this group has sold 265,715 BTC, which is the most BTC that has left the market in a month since early January 2025. At the same time, miners have put about 51,000 BTC worth more than $5.7 billion into exchanges since last Thursday. This is the largest influx since July, which could mean selling pressure in the future.
Fear Reaches Yearly Extremes, But Contrarians See Opportunity
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has dropped to a “Fear” level of 24, its lowest level in a year. This is a big drop from the previous week’s “Greed” score of 71. This big change in mood is similar to what happened in April when prices fell below $74,000 and to bearish cycles in 2018 and 2022.
Bitwise analysts, on the other hand, are taking the other view and saying that severe anxiety has historically been a good time to buy. The research team at the company said that the current loss is mostly due to outside causes, such as trade concerns between the US and China and a record number of futures liquidations that caused Bitcoin’s perpetual futures open interest to drop by around $11 billion.Bitwise researchers said, “Our in-house Cryptoasset Sentiment Index has dropped to its lowest level since the Yen carry trade unwind in August 2024.” “Historically, such extremes have marked favorable entry points ahead of seasonal strength in Q4.”
Glassnode data backs this up by showing that smaller holders (1–1,000 BTC) have been buying more quickly in the last few days. This suggests that retail and mid-tier investors are becoming more confident, even if the market is still very volatile.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Critical Week Ahead
Bitcoin is at a very important point. The cryptocurrency needs to get back to $110,000-$110,500 to cancel the bearish setup and try for a surge toward $113,000. But because of technical weakness and significant holders still selling, it looks like the easiest way to go is down.
If it doesn’t hold $108,000, it might start a chain reaction that takes it down to $105,500. $103,200 is the line in the sand between a healthy correction and a deeper retracement. Whether Bitcoin stabilizes or keeps going down will depend on how miners sell, long-term holders distribute, and small holders accumulate.
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