Gold Price Forecast: $4,300 Test Looms as CPI Shock Fuels Week-Ahead Bets
Gold closed out Friday near $4,338, taking a bit of a breather from recent highs after failing to hold above $4,350.
Quick overview
- Gold closed near $4,338 after failing to maintain levels above $4,350, indicating a temporary pullback rather than a trend reversal.
- US inflation data suggests potential easing of interest rates, which could support gold prices despite recent consolidation.
- Geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Venezuela, are contributing to haven demand for gold.
- Technically, gold remains above key moving averages, with support levels at $4,297 and $4,252, while resistance is noted at $4,356.
Gold closed out Friday near $4,338, taking a bit of a breather from recent highs after failing to hold above $4,350. That pullback seems more like gold bugs cashing out than a redirection of the trend. On the 4hr chart, price is still firmly in a rising channel that’s been guiding gold upwards since late November. You can see recent candles are smaller and have a bit of an upper wick near $4,356 – that’s more a sign of hesitation than an indication of heavy selling.
The real story here is that buyers are continuing to stand firm on dips above key moving averages – that’s keeping the overall picture looking pretty constructive heading into a new week.
Fed Rate Bets and Politics Give Gold A Leg Up
Things look supportive in the macro sphere. US inflation for November was much sharper than expected – headline inflation came in at 2.7% and core inflation at 2.6%, both below forecasts. That’s got some people thinking the Federal Reserve might ease up on interest rates in 2026.
Donald Trump also chimed in recently, suggesting he’s in favour of a more dovish Fed chair, which has added to the uncertainty around interest rate policy. Meanwhile, expectations of lower interest rates are making it less attractive to hold non-yielding assets like gold, so we should see some support even if prices do dip a bit.
Geopolitical risks are also back in the mix. News of Venezuela sailing its navy alongside oil tankers has raised concerns about a potential escalation with the US – that’s keeping haven demand in play, even though prices are currently consolidating.
Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Outlook – Key Levels To Keep An Eye On Next Week
Technically speaking, gold is still holding above the 50-day EMA near $4,297 and the 100-day EMA around $4,252 – both of those EMAs are sloping upwards, which is good for the trend. If we see gold fall below $4,307, we’d be looking at immediate support, followed by a stronger base at $4,264, which aligns with a Fibonacci retracement of the latest rally.
On the other hand, resistance is still a bit stubborn at $4,356, and the upper channel above is somewhere between $4,398 and $4,443.
The momentum picture is neutral at the moment – our RSI of 56 suggests we’ve got some strength without it getting too over-bought, so we’re more likely to see some consolidation or a measured advance rather than a sharp reversal.
Week Ahead Trade Idea:
- If we close above $4,300, then we’re looking at another try at $4,400.
- If we break below $4,260, then we’ve got a wedge that’s going to take a while to sort out.
Trade idea: It’s a good idea to buy gold when it pulls back to around $4,310, with a target of $4,390. Stop losses, of course, are below $4,260.
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