Silver Price Forecast: $67 Close Sets Stage for CPI-Driven $70 Test
Silver price forecast for the week ahead as XAG closes at $67.17, CPI cools, and US data shifts. Can silver push toward $70 next?
Quick overview
- Silver closed at $67.17 last Friday, showing strong technical strength after breaking a key resistance level.
- Recent US macro data indicates slowing growth and cooling inflation, which may support silver's rally this week.
- Key economic indicators to watch include GDP growth, durable goods orders, and consumer confidence updates.
- Silver remains bullish as long as it stays above $66.90, with potential upside targets of $68.20, $69.50, and $70.00.
Silver finished last week on a strong note, closing at $67.17 on Friday, after a steady climb higher following a breakout above a key resistance level.
US macro data has cooled, and markets are reassessing interest rate expectations, so silver is entering this week on the back of both technical strength and changing macro signals.
The question now is whether the US data this week will add some momentum to silver’s recent rally, or put the brakes on it after last month’s surge.
Last Week’s US Data Gave Us a Silver-Lined Macro Picture
The past week gave us a mixed but generally silver-friendly macro picture. Manufacturing data took a hit, inflation cooled off, and consumer sentiment softened – all of which fit with the idea that US growth is slowing without hitting rock bottom.
The key takeaways from last week are:
- The Empire State Manufacturing Index suddenly plummeted to -3.9, underlining just how soft the industrial sector is at the moment.
- The CPI y/y rate fell to 2.7%, below expectations.
- Retail sales are stagnating, while unemployment ticked up to 4.6%
- PMIs slipped, indicating slower momentum heading into year-end.
For silver, all this matters. Easing growth and inflation means there’s less pressure on real interest rates, which keeps silver in the plus column even though risk appetite isn’t exactly going wild.
What Traders Are Watching This Week
It’s a relatively quiet week ahead, but there are still some market-moving events to keep an eye on, with this week’s focus on growth and confidence data rather than inflation shocks.
The key things to watch are:
- Preliminary GDP q/q, expected at 3.2% – a pretty big drop from the 3.8% we saw last time
- Durable Goods Orders and Core Durable Goods
- An update on Consumer Confidence
- Unemployment Claims in the middle of the week
If US GDP or consumer confidence takes a hit this week, that could help silver out, but if the numbers surprise to the upside, that could push silver back towards that resistance level.
Silver Price Forecast: Bullish Shape, But Can It Hold?
From a technical point of view, silver’s still in good shape. Price has basically turned the $66.90-$67.00 zone into support and continues to respect an uptrend line that started in early December.
The metal is also holding up well above the 50-EMA at $65.28 and the 100-EMA near $63.68, which confirms that the longer-term trend is still intact.
Momentum is still healthy, with the RSI near 64, suggesting we still have some steam left in silver without getting too overextended. The Fibonacci extension levels point to $68.17, then $69.53, and the psychological $70.00 level looms if things keep going up.
- Weekly outlook: If silver stays above $66.90, it’s still looking bullish
- Upside targets: $68.20 → $69.50 → $70.00
- Risk level: A daily close below $65.80 would make the whole setup look weaker.
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