XRP Tumbles Below $1.50 as Bear Pennant Pattern Points to Further Decline Toward $1.22
XRP's technical indicators and declining futures open interest suggest extended downtrend may persist through February
Quick overview
- XRP has fallen below the $1.50 mark, reaching its lowest price in over 14 months and showing a bearish trend.
- Technical analysis indicates a bear pennant formation, suggesting further price declines could target as low as $1.22.
- On-chain analytics reveal a significant drop in buy orders, indicating reduced demand and potential for further price drawdowns.
- Despite the bearish outlook, a decline in futures open interest may hint at a possible trend reversal for XRP.
As the cryptocurrency fell below the psychologically significant $1.50 threshold over the weekend, reaching its lowest point in more than 14 months, XRP’s XRP/USD price action has clearly turned bearish. Currently trading below $1.40, down more than 9% in the previous 24 hours, the digital asset faces rising technical pressure that could send prices much lower in the coming weeks.
Textbook Bear Pennant Formation Signals Deeper Correction
On XRP’s four-hour chart, technical analysis shows the development of a classic bear pennant pattern, a continuation pattern that usually indicates more downward momentum. For the first time since November 2024, XRP lost the crucial $1.60 support level after falling almost 14% from $1.75 to $1.50 on Saturday.
The cryptocurrency has now started the breakdown phase of this bearish setup. On Tuesday, XRP violated the pennant’s bottom trendline before rebounding to retest it as resistance near $1.58. If this retest fails and a four-hour candlestick closes below this level, the measured goal of the bear pennant points to $1.22, representing a potential 23% loss from current levels.
This goal is produced by measuring the height of the initial rapid decrease and projecting it from the breakout point, a classic procedure for bear pennant price projections.
Market Demand Evaporates as Buyers Step Back
Beyond chart patterns, on-chain analytics portray an equally troubling picture for XRP bulls. The 90-day Spot Taker Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD), which analyzes whether market orders are driven by buyers or sellers, indicates that buy orders have decreased dramatically since early January.
According to CryptoQuant statistics, demand-side pressure that had dominated the order book since November 2024 has diminished considerably during the past 30 days. This suggests diminishing enthusiasm among XRP investors and reduced bullish momentum. Historically, similar significant decreases in spot CVD have been accompanied by price drawdowns ranging from 28% to 50% within weeks.
Pseudonymous analyst AltCryptoGems labeled XRP’s January comeback to $2.40 as a “fakeout,” observing that “the downtrend remains intact and we are on the verge of a disastrous collapse in a huge no-support zone.” Trader Alex Clay shared this sentiment, noting that after shattering the $1.60 support line of a double bottom pattern, the route is now cleared for a decline toward $1 or lower.
Declining Futures Open Interest Offers Glimmer of Hope
However, one potentially favorable factor for bulls is the steep fall in XRP futures open interest (OI). It has decreased from $4.55 billion on January 6 to barely $2.61 billion on Wednesday—a loss of more than 40%.
When open interest declines alongside dropping prices, it often suggests a weakening bearish trend or potential trend reversal, as overleveraged short bets are closed. This could provide fire for bulls to attempt a recovery toward the overhead resistance at about $1.85, a level that provided as support throughout most of 2024.
Elliott Wave Analysis Suggests $1.08-$1.50 “Washout Zone” Before $20-$30 Rally
Taking a longer-term perspective, Korean Certified Elliott Wave Analyst XForceGlobal says that XRP has entered a “washout” phase inside a bigger corrective structure. With a measured objective utilizing the 1.618 Fibonacci extension pointing to a volatile zone between $1.08 and $1.50, he thinks the current slump is Wave C of an enlarged flat correction.
XForceGlobal identifies this as a “emotion-driven” five-wave drop that often exhausts sellers at severe levels. Once this corrective phase completes, he maintains a positive macro picture with final cycle targets ranging into the $20-$30 region, with an intermediate resistance zone near $6 where considerable profit-taking is predicted.
XRP Price Prediction: Further Downside Likely Before Reversal
The immediate prognosis for XRP remains gloomy. The struggle to sustain price above $1.61 suggests that bears are selling on tiny relief rallies. Sellers will likely aim to push XRP below the support line of the descending channel pattern, potentially retesting the October 10, 2024 bottom of $1.25.
For bulls to recover control, XRP must reclaim the 20-day exponential moving average at $1.79, which would signal the cryptocurrency may consolidate within the channel. The path of least resistance seems to be lower unless there is a clear closure above the downtrend line, which would indicate a possible short-term trend shift.
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