XRP Capitulation Flashes Rare Bullish Signal Amid $1.30 Support Test
Following a 6.1% drop over the past day, XRP is currently enduring a steep "beta-driven" collapse, trading close to $1.30. Although the
Quick overview
- XRP has experienced a 6.1% drop, currently trading near $1.30, amid a broader market sell-off influenced by Bitcoin's decline.
- The asset's technical indicators show a bearish structure, with significant trading volume indicating strong selling pressure.
- Despite the negative price action, a recent on-chain capitulation event suggests potential for a trend reversal, as realized losses reached $2 billion.
- SBI Holdings' introduction of a tokenized bond linked to XRP may enhance its long-term utility and institutional adoption in Japan.
Following a 6.1% drop over the past day, XRP is currently enduring a steep “beta-driven” collapse, trading close to $1.30. Although the asset has been under pressure from the general market sell-off brought on by Bitcoin’s decline and the “Extreme Fear” emotion, a historic on-chain capitulation event raises the possibility of a significant trend reversal.
XRP/USD Technical Breakdown and the “Extreme Fear” Factor
XRP is now in a risky technical position as a result of the recent price movement. The coin has essentially confirmed a bearish short-term structure by plunging below both its 30-day SMA ($1.41) and 7-day SMA ($1.38). A 40.4% increase in trading volume highlighted this move and showed that sellers were highly confident in the breakdown.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), however, has dropped to a level of 19.62 due to the severity of this decline. This level, which historically denotes a selling climax and frequently comes before a big relief bounce, is referred to as “deeply oversold” terrain. The market is presently experiencing “Extreme Fear,” which contrarian investors frequently perceive as a favorable time for accumulation, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index at 14.
On-Chain Capitulation: A $2 Billion Warning Shot
Despite the pricing chart’s bleak appearance, Santiment’s on-chain data shows a possible bright spot. Realized losses on XRP recently skyrocketed, reaching around $2 billion in a single week. This “clearing out” of weaker hands that sold at levels below their entrance is the biggest capitulation event since 2022.
This particular signal has historically been a sign of rapid expansion. 39 months have passed since realized losses of this size occurred, and within the next eight months, XRP saw a 114% increase. According to this “pain” metric, most sellers have probably been flushed out of the market, opening the door for a comeback after general market circumstances have stabilized.
Japan’s SBI Holdings Bridges TradFi and XRP
The most recent action taken by SBI Holdings of Japan is to provide a fundamental floor to XRP’s long-term utility. On the “ibet for Fin” blockchain, the financial behemoth has introduced a tokenized bond worth ¥10 billion ($64.5 million). Notably, investors receive both scheduled and immediate XRP benefits through 2029 from this regulated product.
The move is a major milestone for institutional adoption, even though the initial issue is small in comparison to the global market cap of XRP. SBI is legitimizing XRP’s place in Japan’s mainstream financial system and generating steady demand for the cryptocurrency by encapsulating it in a regulated fixed-income instrument.
XRP Price Prediction: Relief Bounce or Deeper Correction?
XRP’s short-term trajectory is mostly dependent on Bitcoin’s capacity to maintain the $64,000 mark. XRP is ready for a relief bounce if the overall market stabilizes.
- Bullish Case: XRP may go for the $1.41 SMA if it recovers over the $1.36 Fibonacci resistance. Within the following eight months, a macro aim of $2.70 to $2.90 is attainable if the “114% signal” continues to unfold as it has in the past.
- Bearish Case: A more significant fall toward the psychological $1.30 support is probably in store if XRP is unable to hold the $1.33 swing low. Analysts caution that the macro floor between $0.75 and $0.85 may even be tested in the event of a complete market crash.
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