Dow Jones Breaks Resistance, Confirming Uptrend Toward 50K

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Dow Jones extended gains as the “peace trade” accelerated, pushing equities higher while oil prices continued to decline on improving geopolitical expectations.

Peace Trade Gains Momentum

It was another strong session for global markets as investors continued to price in a potential geopolitical resolution. Optimism around negotiations involving Donald Trump remained a key driver, with reports suggesting progress toward a deal and discussions of a second meeting in Pakistan.

While headlines out of Lebanon were limited, the tone remained broadly constructive. At the same time, reports that Iran is not testing a potential U.S. blockade in the Strait of Hormuz added to the sense that tensions may be easing. Together, these developments have reinforced confidence that negotiations are moving in the right direction.

However, markets remain aware that the situation is fluid. The unpredictable nature of negotiations means sentiment could shift quickly if talks deteriorate.

Oil Extends Decline as Risk Premium Fades

Oil prices continued to tumble as the geopolitical risk premium unwound further. The steady decline reflects growing confidence that supply disruptions may be avoided, at least in the near term.

Despite the sharp pullback, oil has not yet returned to pre-conflict levels, indicating that some degree of uncertainty remains embedded in pricing. Still, the direction of travel suggests that markets are increasingly comfortable with the idea of de-escalation.

Equities Push Above Pre-War Levels

U.S. equity markets delivered another strong performance, with major indices now trading above their pre-war levels as risk appetite improves.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 48,535.99, rising 0.7%
  The S&P 500 finished at 6,967.38, up 1.2%
  The Nasdaq Composite led gains, climbing 2.0% to 23,639.08

The strength in equities highlights how aggressively markets are pricing in a positive outcome, with sentiment now firmly in “risk-on” territory.

Sector Rotation Reflects Changing Sentiment

Market leadership continues to shift in line with improving sentiment.

Travel-related stocks surged as investors priced in stronger global mobility and demand
Memory and semiconductor names outperformed, supported by broader tech momentum
Large-cap technology, particularly the “Magnificent Seven,” provided significant upside support
Energy stocks lagged behind as falling oil prices weighed on the sector

This rotation underscores the transition away from defensive and commodity-driven trades toward growth and cyclical sectors.

Outlook: Approaching “Buy the Fact” Territory

Markets now appear to be heavily positioned for a positive resolution, with estimates suggesting that a peace deal is largely priced in. This raises the risk of a classic “sell the fact” reaction if a formal agreement is reached.

While the current trajectory remains constructive, the balance of risks is becoming more nuanced. Further gains may require not just confirmation of peace, but clarity on long-term economic and geopolitical stability.

For now, momentum remains strong—but expectations are high, and that leaves little room for disappointment.

Dow Jones Chart Daily – Breaking Above the 100 SMA

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Skerdian Meta

Lead Analyst

Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.

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