Silver Price Stalls at $36.74: Is a $37.63 Breakout or $35.97 Dip Next?

Silver (XAG/USD) is sitting just above $36.74 after hitting $37.30 earlier this week. It’s holding support at the lower end of the rising...

Written by: Arslan Butt • Thursday, June 19, 2025 • 2 min read

• Last updated: Thursday, June 19, 2025

Quick overview

Silver (XAG/USD) is currently above $36.74 after reaching $37.30 earlier this week, supported by Middle East tensions.
The Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged is limiting potential gains for silver and gold.
Technical indicators show fading momentum for silver, with bearish signals present on the chart.
The upcoming price movements will determine whether silver can regain bullish momentum or face further corrections.

Silver (XAG/USD) is sitting just above $36.74 after hitting $37.30 earlier this week. It’s holding support at the lower end of the rising channel on the 2 hour chart, waiting for the next move. Middle East tensions are providing a boost but broader macro is clouding the outlook.

KCM Trade’s Tim Waterer summed it up: “Gold has bounced a bit as we wait for the next steps in the Israel-Iran conflict. If the US gets involved the stakes could rise quickly.” US President Donald Trump hasn’t confirmed if the US will be involved in strikes on Iranian military sites. Meanwhile reports of civilians fleeing Tehran and US military assets moving across the Middle East are increasing risk.

Silver, often a secondary safe haven to gold, has seen some flows but rising uncertainty isn’t translating to upside due to other economic forces.

Fed Caution Caps Gains

Despite the geopolitical tensions metals like silver and gold have a ceiling: the Fed. On Wednesday the Fed left interest rates unchanged. While they still expect 2 rate cuts in 2025, Chair Jerome Powell said inflationary pressures – especially from incoming tariffs – could delay any rate cuts.

As City Index’s Matt Simpson said: “The Fed wasn’t as dovish as some had hoped. Powell’s tone may limit upside especially since the dollar is already oversold.”

Bearish pressure remains:

Fed pauses cuts, flags “meaningful” inflation
Dollar strength erodes safe-haven appeal
Traders unwind rate-cut bets, weighing on metals

Silver has no bullish catalyst and is vulnerable to short term pullbacks even in a structurally bullish setup.

Silver Technical Chart: Holding for Now, But for How Long?

On the technicals silver is inside an ascending channel. Price is consolidating at the 50 period EMA at $36.68 – right at the trendline that has been guiding the move since early June. The momentum is fading.

Silver Price Chart - Source: Tradingview — Silver Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

MACD is in bearish crossover
Histogram bars are red
No bullish candlestick pattern (hammer or engulfing) has formed

Trade Setup:

Bounce from $36.68 with a strong candle and silver could go to $36.98 and $37.30. Break above and $37.63. Below $36.60 and $36.35 and $35.97.

Silver is at a crossroads. Next few candles will decide if bulls take back control or bears push for a deeper correction.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.