Daily Crypto Signals: Bitcoin Eyes $70K Reset, Solana Struggles at Six-Month Lows
Bitcoin faces increased correction risk toward $70,000, which analysts characterize as a macroeconomic reset rather than a new bear market
Quick overview
- Bitcoin is facing a potential correction toward $70,000, which analysts view as a healthy reset rather than the onset of a bear market.
- Solana's total value locked has dropped to $8.67 billion, reflecting a 34% decline and ongoing bearish pressure on the network.
- Institutional interest in cryptocurrency remains strong, highlighted by HashKey Holdings' successful IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
- Solana's technical indicators suggest a possible decline to $86, with significant bearish patterns emerging amid decreasing network activity.
Bitcoin BTC/USD faces increased correction risk toward $70,000, which analysts characterize as a macroeconomic reset rather than a new bear market, while Solana SOL/USD battles declining network activity with total value locked dropping to $8.67 billion and technical patterns pointing toward potential $86 support levels.
Crypto Market Developments
As traditional banking continues to integrate with digital assets, the cryptocurrency market saw significant institutional and regulatory changes this week. After Summer Mersinger joined the Blockchain Association earlier this year, Caroline Pham, the acting chair of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, announced her departure to become chief legal and administrative officer of MoonPay, a cryptocurrency payments company. This is another high-profile regulatory-to-industry transition.
With an IPO that raised $206 million, HashKey Holdings became the first digital asset business in Asian markets to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The Hong Kong portion of the offering was oversubscribed about 394 times, demonstrating a strong institutional demand. Fidelity and UBS Asset Management Singapore were among the cornerstone investors. In the meantime, the Kingdom of Bhutan promised to use 10,000 Bitcoin from its reserves to build the Gelephu Mindfulness City, a unique administrative area intended to serve as a financial center with flexible regulations for fintech and cryptocurrency businesses.
Bitcoin Faces Constructive Correction: $70,000 Next Target?
Investors are considering a possible drop to $70,000 because to Bitcoin’s recent price slump, but market analysts stress that this would be a healthy reset rather than the start of a bear market. Bitcoin, which is currently trading at $86,189, has showed signs of weakness after failing to sustain higher levels. However, cryptocurrency trader Jackis pointed out that rather than the systemic macro-driven risk-off pressure observed in 2022 or early 2024, the current move reflects supply shift from early holders to institutional participants.
Despite the short-term downside concerns, technical analysts are spotting possible bottoming indications. Although further consolidation time is needed for confirmation, market expert Jelle pointed out a developing three-day bullish divergence pattern that has traditionally associated with local bottoms in prior cycles. Global Macro Investor’s Julien Bittel highlighted oversold RSI readings below 30, pointing out that whenever such circumstances arise, Bitcoin usually follows a predetermined recovery path. A correction into the $65,000 to $75,000 range would provide good buying opportunities for the next structural advancement toward a potential $300,000 target by 2029, according to Jurrien Timmer of Fidelity, who placed the current phase within a larger wave structure spanning 2022 to 2025 that has delivered a 105% compound annual growth rate over 145 weeks.
Solana Network Activity Deteriorates, TVL Down 34%
SOL, the native token of Solana, has fallen 52% from its peak of $255 on September 18 and is currently trading at $123.61, while several onchain indicators indicate that bearish pressure is still present. From its September 14 peak of $13.22 billion, the total value locked on the blockchain has decreased by more than 34% to a six-month low of $8.67 billion. During this time, significant protocols such as Jito liquid staking have declined by 53%, while Jupiter DEX, Raydium, and Sanctum protocol have each experienced a decline of 30% to 46%.
In terms of short-term price activity, network fundamentals present a troubling picture. While active addresses declined 7.8% and transaction counts plummeted 6.3% over a seven-day period, Solana’s weekly chain fees came to a meager $3.43 million, a loss of 11% from the previous week and a 23% monthly decline. With weekly DEX volume attributed to memecoins falling 95% to $2.7 billion from January’s peak of $56 billion, the decline in Solana-based memecoin activity has been especially striking. Significantly decreased onchain demand is indicated by this memecoin sector weakness as well as double-digit losses across the main Solana memecoins.
With SOL breaking below a bearish pennant pattern that predicts a gradual move toward $86—a potential 32% decline from current levels—technical analysis points to additional negative danger. Solana may likely hit the $90 to $100 region, according to pseudonymous trader Grim, but bulls may try to protect against larger losses by using the 200-week exponential moving average at $118 as initial support. SOL could test levels not seen since mid-2024 due to the combination of declining fundamentals and bearish market signs.
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