Gold Price Prediction: XAU/USD Hits $4,876 as Tariff Fears and Charts Point Toward $5,000
Gold prices extended their rally during the European session, with XAU/USD trading close to $4,876 in a fresh all-time high...
Quick overview
- Gold prices have reached an all-time high of nearly $4,876, driven by rising geopolitical risks and market unease.
- The weakening US dollar, influenced by trade tensions and concerns over retaliation, has further fueled gold's rally as investors seek safe havens.
- Technically, gold is in a strong bull market, breaking above key Fibonacci levels and showing strong buying momentum.
- Traders are monitoring key support and resistance levels, with a suggested trade idea to buy up to $4,820 and target $4,950.
Gold prices extended their rally during the European session, with XAU/USD trading close to $4,876 in a fresh all-time high. This move reflects a growing unease in global markets as old worries resurface – namely, the worsening of geopolitical risks. Investors are overreacting right now to renewed threats from US President Donald Trump, who has been singling out several European nations for their stance on his proposal to buy Greenland.
The warning from Trump that he could slap 200% tariffs on French wine, & Europes decision to delay approval of the US trade agreement, have unsettled the markets. As things get more unstable, gold continues to attract money from investors as a safe haven against that uncertainty.
The Dollar is Getting Weaker – and Adding Fuel to Gold’s Rally
Gold’s Advance has been boosted by a weaker US dollar. The greenback has fallen to near a two-week low because of the renewed ‘Sell America’ chatter in the market. There’s still significant concern about retaliation, trade disruption, and the long-term de-dollarisation, which is driving investors out of the dollar and into hard assets.
Even though expectations of Aggressive Fed rate cuts, which were expected for 2026, have cooled, that Shift hasn’t done much to calm the dollar. Now everyone is watching out for upcoming US PCE inflation numbers & the final Q3 GDP reading, both of which could really influence what the Fed does next & where the dollar is headed in the near term.
Gold (XAU/USD) Looks Pretty Bullish to Us – Even From a Technical Perspective
From a technical stance, gold is firmly in a bull market. On the 2-hour chart, the price has broken above an up-sloping trend line, and is accelerating above the 1.618 Fibonacci extension near $4,710, confirming the bull trend & dismissing this as just a spike.
Recent candlesticks show big, fat bullish bodies with very little at the top, suggesting strong buying rather than just a crash out of steam. The latest price action unfolded from a consolidation that looks a lot like a bull continuation triangle, resolving to the upside with much more momentum than before.
Gold is now holding above the 2.618 Fibonacci level at $4,818, which has become short-term support. This move is developing within a super steep ascending channel, which keeps telling us to stay positive on gold. RSI is high up in the 78–90 zone, which indicates that gold is overbought – but there’s no bearish Divergence to suggest that it’s about to reverse anytime soon.
Key Levels That Traders Are Watching Out For
- Support: $4,818, then $4,760
- Resistance: $4,925, followed by $4,966–$5,010
- Structure: Ascending channel, bull triangle breakout
- Momentum: RSI high, trend looks good
Trade Idea: Buy back up to $4,820, target $4,950, stop below $4,760.
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