Coinbase (COIN) Stock Surges 16% as Cathie Wood’s ARK Returns to Buying Post-Earnings
After a dismal results report, investors turned their attention to Coinbase Global's enormous cash reserves and the resumption of
Quick overview
- After a disappointing Q4 report, Coinbase shares surged 16.4% as investors focused on its substantial cash reserves and institutional buying.
- ARK Invest resumed purchasing COIN shares, adding $15.2 million back into its ETFs after a period of selling.
- Despite a $667 million net loss, Coinbase's subscription and services revenue increased, indicating potential long-term stability.
- Concerns over insider selling by CEO Brian Armstrong and mixed analyst ratings create uncertainty about the stock's future direction.
After a dismal results report, investors turned their attention to Coinbase Global’s enormous cash reserves and the resumption of institutional “dip-buying.” As a result, the company’s shares saw a wild 16.4% rebound during Friday’s trading session, closing at $164.32. Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest, which added $15.2 million worth of COIN shares back into its actively managed ETFs after a weeks-long selling frenzy, accentuated the increase.
Coinbase’s “Everything Exchange” Strategy vs. Q4 Realities
The surge occurs a few days after Coinbase revealed a difficult 2025 fourth quarter. The business experienced a $667 million net loss, falling short of Wall Street’s predicted 92 cents in earnings per share (EPS) of 66 cents. Due to a 37% decline in transaction income as trading volumes were slowed by cryptocurrency volatility, net revenue dropped 21.5% year over year to $1.78 billion.
CEO Brian Armstrong emphasized the company’s “Everything Exchange” strategy’s effectiveness despite the headline fail. Revenue from subscriptions and services, a crucial indicator of long-term stability, increased 13% to $727.4 million, or 43% of total revenue. The management has maintained its positive outlook for Q1 2026, estimating that subscription revenue will range from $550 million to $630 million.
Institutional Rebound: ARK Invest and the Analyst Split
In addition to lesser stakes in its Fintech (ARKF) and Next Generation Internet (ARKW) funds, ARK Invest paid $15.2 million on February 13 for 66,545 shares of the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK). After ARK sold out more than $39 million worth of shares earlier in February, this action represents a dramatic change in mood.
However, Wall Street is still very split over the direction of the stock:
- Goldman Sachs: Maintained a “Buy” rating with a $303 price target, citing the durability of non-trading revenue.
- JPMorgan: Slashed its price target to $252, pointing to “softness in crypto prices” and decelerating stablecoin growth.
- Benchmark: Cut its target to $267 but reiterated its buy rating, suggesting that the current price still offers 60% upside.
Coinbase (COIN) Technical Outlook: Reversal Analysis
Coinbase (COIN) is currently attempting to validate a Triple Bottom formation, a powerful bullish reversal pattern following its 60% retreat from the 2025 highs. The stock has established a “demand zone” between $141 and $150, characterized by three distinct tests of this support floor since late 2024. The most recent bounce, fueled by a 16.4% intraday surge and $15 million in accumulation from ARK Invest, has pushed the price toward the $168 Parabolic SAR level. A clean break above this immediate barrier is required to flip momentum from bearish to bullish on the daily timeframe.
The critical “make-or-break” point for this reversal is the $190 neckline, which coincides with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and the Supertrend resistance. While the 14-day RSI at 60 indicates strengthening buyer conviction, the pattern remains unconfirmed until COIN achieves a high-volume daily close above $190. A successful breakout would project a technical target of $238, whereas a failure to hold the $150 support node would likely trigger a capitulation event toward the psychological $100 floor.
Insider Activity Concerns Weigh on COIN Shares
The continuous “selling spree” by CEO Brian Armstrong adds another degree of worry. According to reports, Armstrong has sold over $545.7 million worth of shares in the last nine months, which includes 88 different sell orders and no buys. Retail investors are concerned about the extent of insider liquidation, even though these sells were carried out under prearranged 10b5-1 agreements.
Coinbase is redefining itself as more than a trading desk with $11.3 billion in cash and a shift toward AI-agent wallets and decentralized prediction markets. Whether the larger cryptocurrency market has actually found its floor will have a significant impact on its ability to sustain this 16% momentum.
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