Strategy Inc. (MSTR) Defies 10% Bitcoin Loss as Michael Saylor Signals Further Accumulation

Quick overview

The software-turned-Bitcoin treasury firm Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ: MSTR), headed by executive chairman Michael Saylor, is at a pivotal point in its history, nursing a 10% loss on its enormous Bitcoin BTC/USD wager while doubling down on accumulation at a rate not seen in more than a year.

Following a sharp decline from the stock’s all-time high of $434.20, shares of MSTR finished Friday at $135.66, down 6.6% for the week. The stock has already dropped about 69% from its peak after a brief rally earlier this month, prompting investors to consider if the company’s bold Bitcoin strategy is about to reach a turning point or a breaking point.

Saylor Signals the Buying Continues

Saylor posted a mysterious but well-known statement on X over the weekend, titled “The Orange March Continues,” along with a chart showing Strategy’s Bitcoin purchases since August 2020. In the midst of increased US-Iranian military tensions, Bitcoin fell 4% to about $67,725 before somewhat recovering. The post was widely seen as a warning that another buy is either impending or previously completed.

An already remarkable month of accumulation would be prolonged by the possible additional acquisition. At a total cost of over $2.9 billion, Strategy purchased 17,994 Bitcoin on March 9 and an additional 22,337 Bitcoin on March 16, totaling about 40,000 BTC in about two weeks, the greatest accumulation since late 2024.

The Losses Are Real, For Now

With Bitcoin currently trading close to $68,100 and Strategy’s average cost per Bitcoin at about $75,696, the company is sitting on an unrealized loss of more than 10% across its holdings of about 761,068 BTC, a stack currently valued at about $53.8 billion according to BitcoinTreasuries.NET.

The viability of corporate Bitcoin treasury practices has come under increased scrutiny as a result of the losses. A number of peer businesses that adopted Strategy’s model have suffered much more, which has increased doubts about the ability of balance-sheet Bitcoin bets to withstand protracted declines.

MSTR’s BTC Purchase Funding Strategy Shifts

A significant shift in the way Strategy finances its Bitcoin purchases complicates the situation. The company has shifted its focus from issuing equity, which over the past year had caused shareholders to worry about dilution, to alternate instruments, such as its high-yield perpetual preferred stock called STRC (Stretch). However, due to insufficient investor demand, Strategy suspended further capital fundraising through STRC last week, raising concerns about the long-term viability of this funding strategy.

Simply Wall St. analysts point out that moving away from equity issuance may reduce dilution pressures in the future, but they caution that relying more on debt or STRC-linked securities comes with risks of its own, especially in light of Bitcoin’s price volatility.

Strategy (MSTR) Outlook: Bulls Still See a Path to $200

Not everyone is pessimistic despite the volatility. According to Simply Wall St’s internal modeling, MSTR shares are 76% below assessed fair value and trade about 64% below the consensus analyst price objective of $374.07.

With a possible breakthrough target of $80,000 to $100,000 per coin, technical analysts identify an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern—a traditionally bullish signal—forming on the Bitcoin chart. Strategy’s massive holdings would swing quickly back into profit area if Bitcoin were to regain those levels. A short squeeze could hasten any upward movement, since short interest in MSTR has increased to over 13%.

Momentum indicators are displaying early indications of a positive turnaround, and the stock’s RSI has recovered from extremely oversold levels in February. Some experts predict a return reaching the $190–$200 region.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

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