USOIL at $101.92 Dips 1.84% as Ceasefire Holds – Fundamentals Regain Control?

Quick overview

The WTI crude oil price (USOIL) was about $101.92/b during the morning trade on 20 May, 2026, off 1.84 per cent for the session following sideways trade during a consolidation phase. The main factors shaping prices today are:

1. Ceasefire holding The temporary US-Iran ceasefire has been in place for over six weeks. It seems to be working with some tankers starting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The geopolitical shock of April 2026 and March has faded, calming the previously wild price swings of the month.
2. Supply being brought back on stream There is now a greater frequency of tanker traffic passing through the key straits, which is reducing the chances of a prolonged global shortage of crude oil. That said, supply restoration is nowhere near complete. Insurance costs, logistical challenges, damage to port infrastructure and repairs mean traffic is thought to be back to 70-75% of its pre-crisis levels.
3. Supply and demand steady The US is near record levels of production while OPEC+ are controlling supply to some degree and demand is increasing from new sources like Guyana, Brazil and Canada. Demand remains on an upward trend following the price correction due to the ceasefire deal, specifically in the Asian market, although some key emerging markets are likely to see demand growth slow in 2026.

WTI Crude Oil – 4H Chart Analysis

USOIL is trying to break a flag on 4H. Price holds black ascending trendline and red MA around $100.67 and $101.21, while finding some support around $98.97-$99.70 (blue MA).

We are still within the triangle, and there has been no bearish engulfing pattern on 4H. During the impulsive move, price exceeded prior highs, while it has since been consolidating to test and hold 0.382-0.5 Fib level perfectly.

RSI sits neutral around 49-55 with positive divergence during the latest drop, and bearish momentum has declined. It should still have ample room to go lower before it enters oversold zone. Major resistance stands at $102.86-$104.59.

Key levels are:

• Resistance: $102.86 to $104.59 to $106.56
• Support: $100.12 to $98.39

Trade idea: Buy above $102.50 targeting $104.59 to $106.56, stop below $100.00. The WTI is moving away from the very high geopolitical tension that drove the recent market, and closer to normal seasonal consumption patterns and oil inventories, together with OPEC+ supply discipline. The recent truce has reduced expectations for a large supply shock, yet it was just a temporary cease-fire deal.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

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