Bitcoin Eyes $80,000 Milestone as Institutional Demand Offsets Bearish Macro Forecasts

Quick overview

Bitcoin BTC/USD continued to rise on Sunday, trading above $79,000 for the first time in weeks and gaining more than 2% in the last 24 hours. This was due to a new wave of institutional buying and a positive macroeconomic environment. But even while bulls were happy about the increase, a group of analysts warned that the surge might be running out of steam before it reaches $100,000.

US Spot Bitcoin ETFs Add $2.1B in Inflows

The main reason for Monday’s surge was clear: US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw nine straight days of net inflows through April 24, bringing in around $2.12 billion in total buying. This was the longest inflow streak of 2026 so far. That ongoing institutional demand has created a structural floor for the price, taking in new supply and showing that regulated money is once again buying Bitcoin.

The on-chain data backed up the picture. The Hourly Coinbase Premium Index, which tracks the price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase and Binance and is based on volume, has been in the mildly positive range since early April. Before that, it had been in the negative range for a long time. A long-term premium on Coinbase usually means that bigger, more serious purchasers are at work because it is the exchange of choice for US institutions and professional investors. Darkfost, an on-chain analyst, stated on X, “US institutional and professional investors are back in the Bitcoin market.”

Macro Tailwinds Support BTC Rally

The fact that Bitcoin is 97% correlated with the S&P 500 over the past 30 days shows how closely it is following the overall mood of risk right now. Last week, the whole market went up by about 2% because of a “risk-on surge” that saw US equities ETFs get record daily inflows. Bitcoin went up too. The coin broke over its 7-day moving average at about $77,489, and the move was confirmed by increased volume. The RSI-14 is at 65, which means that momentum is good but not yet too high.

The FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve on April 29 is the most important macro event of the week. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, 99.5% of traders think there won’t be a change in interest rates. This means that the decision itself shouldn’t surprise the markets. However, people will be paying close attention to the tone of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments, which will probably be his last FOMC press conference before his term ends next month, to see if there is any change in the rate-cut timeline.

The Bear Case: Can Bitcoin Slip to $57,000 by October?

Some people aren’t sure that the rally will last. Michael Terpin, a Bitcoin author and investor, says that BTC might hit a low of around $57,000 by October 2026, which is about a year after it set an all-time high of over $126,000 last October. This is based on the “historical average” drop of about one year after a cycle peak. Terpin told Cointelegraph that the bull market is unlikely to start up again without ETF buying, Michael Saylor’s continuous accumulation from Strategy, and no severe liquidation cascades.

Matthew Hyland, a crypto analyst, agreed with the cautious tone and said that the lack of excitement from market players shows that many investors see the current increase as a small bounce rather than the start of a new leg higher. “It looks to me like the bigger expected consensus outcome for BTC is another leg lower by October,” he said. In the short term, technical analysts say that $80,000 is a strong level of resistance, where many recent ETF purchases break even. They also say that if prices don’t close above it, they might drop back to $73,900 or, in a worse case, to $65,710.

Bitcoin Price Outlook

Bitcoin is about $800 below the $80,000 resistance level and just over $20,000 below the $100,000 psychological level. The next few days will be very important. The three things that are most likely to decide whether the current rally has enough fuel to break through or whether the bears’ October thesis starts to look more likely are daily ETF flow data, the direction of the Coinbase Premium Index, and the Federal Reserve’s tone on Wednesday.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

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