Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Nears $4,590; FOMC & Oil Inflation Weigh – $4,485 Next?

Quick overview

As of April 29, 2026 – and morning trading is showing us – spot gold is hovering near $4,590-$4,626 per ounce, but seems to be easing off a little and hitting one-month lows due to concerns about inflation that just won’t go away – all because US-Iran diplomacy has stalled and the Strait of Hormuz is still causing chaos.

Key Drivers For Today

• Central Banks Still Hungry For Gold: Official buying was pretty strong in the first quarter of 2026 – up 3% compared to the same time the year before – with a net 244 tonnes added. We saw some big purchases in February – 27 tonnes worth – led by Poland adding 20 tonnes to its stash. Poland’s National Bank has built up its gold holdings to a fairly impressive 570 tonnes (that’s 31% of the total). They’re gunning for 700 tonnes in the long run. And, as you’d expect, emerging markets are still keen on diversifying their investments.
• Record Q1 Demand, But Sort Of: Total gold demand rose by 2% year on year to a whacking 1,231 tonnes – and at the same time generated a record quarterly value of $193 billion. But while bar and coin investment went through the roof – up 42% to 474 tonnes – that’s the second-highest on record – ETF inflows slowed and jewellery demand took a hit of 23% due to high prices.
• FOMC Decision Today: Everyone expects the Federal Reserve to stick with interest rates at 3.50-3.75%. But what Chair Powell has to say at his 2:30 PM ET press conference is anyone’s guess – we’ll be keeping an eye out for clues about what’s behind the energy-driven inflation risks and whether we can even think about easing them back later this year.

Gold (XAU/USD) – How It Looks From A Technical Perspective

Gold has cleanly broken through that key $4,660 support zone and has lost the rising trendline that had been supporting prices since late March – so this is looking like a big bearish shift for us. And now – with price sitting below both the 50-EMA and the 200-EMA – the short-term moving average is already starting to roll over. It all looks pretty grim.

That rejection from the descending trendline at $4,770-$4,780 followed by lower highs is just what sellers need to prove they’re in control. The RSI is currently hovering around 30, which is pretty weak – but we’re not quite at oversold territory yet.

Key Levels

• Resistance: $4,660 to $4,700
• Support: $4,556 to $4,485

Trade Idea: Sell at the first sign of $4,660 breaking and target $4,485 – and make sure to put a stop-loss in above $4,700.

Geopolitics, FOMC signals and that Q1 GDP data due out on April 30 will all have a big say in how gold behaves in the coming days. And of course, we can’t forget the central banks – they’re still buying gold in a big way – that’s got to be good news for the long term.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

Gold Falls to Lowest Level in Nearly Four Weeks, Nears $4,590/Oz

2 h ago

Save

Silver Price Forecast: XAG Faces Sixth Straight Deficit: $72 Support in Focus as Channel Breaks?

2 h ago

Save

Forex Signals April 29: Google, MSFT, Amazon AMZN, and META Earnings Preview

10 h ago

Save