Silver Price Forecast: XAG Faces Sixth Straight Deficit: $72 Support in Focus as Channel Breaks?
As of April 29, 2026 (Trading started on a pretty gloomy morning), Silver is sagging around $73.80-$74.50 per ounce, showing...
Quick overview
- As of April 29, 2026, silver prices are fluctuating between $73.80 and $74.50 per ounce after breaking key support levels.
- The silver market is facing a structural deficit of 46.3 million ounces this year, marking a significant increase from the previous year.
- Global mine production is projected to decline slightly, while industrial demand is expected to decrease due to cost-cutting measures in the solar market.
- Technical analysis indicates a bearish outlook for silver, with key resistance at $74.70 and support at $72.04.
As of April 29, 2026 (Trading started on a pretty gloomy morning), Silver is sagging around $73.80-$74.50 per ounce, showing a bit of a wobble after breaking a few key support levels.
Key drivers on our radar today
- Structural Deficit Worsens: For the sixth year in a row we’re looking at a shortfall in the Silver market this year, and its looking like a pretty big one – 46.3 million ounces to be exact – a 15% jump from 40.3 million in 2025 (Thanks to the Silver Institute for those numbers) That’s also on top of a cumulative 762 million ounces drawn down from above ground stockpiles since 2021 – which is not a pretty picture, and means our inventories are running critically low.
- Supply Outlook Looking a bit Shaky: The forecast for global mine production is expected to creep lower by about 0.3%, which translates to 844.1 million ounces. Mexico is expected to make a bit of an increase, but that’s about it.
- Demand is Looking a bit patchy: Industrial fabrication, which accounts for more than 55% of all demand is expected to ease back by 2-3% to around 640-650 million ounces – a four-year low – due to what’s happening in the solar market (People are looking to cut costs). On the other hand, demand from the electronics, AI infrastructure, data centers and EVs is still holding strong.
- Macro Factors in Play: The FOMC decision today (How will they set interest rates?) and a press conference from Powell (What will he have to say?) are going to be pretty big news events for now, as well as the ongoing energy crisis in the Middle East which is driving inflation and influencing how people are thinking about interest rates and safe haven investments.
Long term we’re still pretty confident that the fact that the silver market is being eroded away and that silver has two roles to play – both as an industrial metal and a store of value – is still where the real support for the metal is.
Silver (XAG/USD) Technical Analysis
Silver has broken below the trendline that was helping keep the price going up for a bit on a 4H chart – that changes the whole outlook and now we’re seeing a bit of downside pressure creeping in. The loss of the $74.70 support line is a pretty big deal – it tells us that the sellers are starting to get on top.
Now we’re below the short term moving average and the 50 & 200ma are both rolling over. The price earlier tried to break above the $76-$77 resistance zone but failed – that created a lower high and reinforced the bearish outlook – and the RSI is at 37, not super oversold yet.
Key Levels to Watch
- Resistance: $74.70 – > $76.90
- Support: $72.04 – > $69.50
Trade Idea: Sell below $74.70, and target $72.04 and look to cut the losses if it breaks above $76. Silver is still pretty sensitive to interest rate decisions, oil prices and geopolitics.
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