Silver Price Outlook: Sixth Straight Deficit Fuels Tightness – $72.60 Breakdown Next?

As of April 28th, 2026 (the morning of the markets opening) spot silver is floating around $75.67-$75.84 per ounce – not a bad showing (up a modest 0.1-0.3%) after last week’s pullback. Silver is still sitting pretty for year-over-year gains (up a whopping 128%+, and just as well above its all time high in January 2026, which was around $121-$122.

Key Drivers for This Week

• Structural Deficit Worsens Yet Again: The silver market is headed into its sixth year in a row with a shortfall in 2026 – they’re projecting a 46.3 million ounce shortfall, a 15% increase over the 2025 deficit of 40.3 million ounces (figures courtesy of the Silver Institute). And if that’s not enough, cumulative above ground stock drawdowns have been going on since 2021, leaving us with a grand total of 760 million ounces being pulled from stockpiles. Historically low levels is right.
• Industrial Demand Eases a Bit: Fabrication (that accounts for over 55% of total demand) is forecast to slow down a bit – by 2-3% – that puts it at around 640-650 million ounces. Solar is struggling a bit with thrifting (whatever that means), but electronics, AI infrastructure, EVs and data centres are still really making their presence felt.
• Investment Flows Are On the Rise: Expect bar-and-coin demand to jump sharply – some forecasts are saying a 18% YoY leap – that’s thanks to safe-haven buyers stepping in. Mine production is edging lower, coming in around 844 million ounces.
• Macro & Geopolitics: the US-Iran ceasefire extension is a bit of a relief, but there are still talks stalled and Hormuz uncertainty hanging over everyone, keeping oil prices up and inflation risks real – and that’s influencing real yields and the US dollar.

Don’t expect any let up in inventory erosion and dual monetary-industrial dynamics anytime soon – sounds like they’re still bullish drivers.

Silver (XAG/USD) Technical Analysis

Silver (XAG/USD) starts this week off with a definite bearish momentum, having broken below the lower boundary of its ascending channel on the 4 hour chart. Price is now trading in the low $70s – since it lost the $74.76 support and the mid-range structure it had going on. It’s also below the 50 EMA at $76.45 and the 200 EMA at $77:11 – so that’s bearish control for sure.

The rising channel that started up at $63-$65 lows has been invalidated – so that’s no longer an option. And the fact that there are lower highs in the $78-$82 region is starting to tell us that there’s some distribution going on there. The RSI has dropped down into the low 30s, which is getting oversold but there’s no immediate sign of a bull divergence.

Key Levels

• Resistance: $74.76 – $76.45
• Support: $72.60 – $69.98

Trade Idea: Sell below $74.76 with a target of $72.60, stop above $76.45.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

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