INTC Stock Rebound Extends, Confirming Uptrend as 18A Manufacturing Push Revives Intel Optimism

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Intel Corporation shares are rebounding strongly after a steep semiconductor-sector selloff, as improving market sentiment and renewed analyst optimism offset rising geopolitical and competitive concerns.

Intel Shares Recover After Volatile Selloff

Intel Corporation experienced a sharp period of volatility as geopolitical tensions, export restrictions, and intensifying competition weighed heavily on semiconductor stocks. Concerns surrounding slowing momentum in the broader chip industry pushed Intel shares close to the psychologically important $100 level, reinforcing fears about weakening investor confidence.

However, the decline ultimately found support near that zone, helping trigger a strong rebound. Shares recovered above $110 before extending gains further on Wednesday, climbing above $120 and continuing Tuesday’s bullish momentum as broader market sentiment improved.

The rebound was also supported by a fresh wave of positive analyst commentary and renewed optimism surrounding Intel’s manufacturing strategy.

18A Manufacturing Strategy Draws Attention

Investor sentiment improved further after reports suggested Intel has been encouraging PC manufacturers to adopt processors built on its advanced 18A manufacturing process.

According to Wedbush, the move signals an effort by Intel to protect profitability while ramping up next-generation production capacity. The firm noted that Intel appears to be directing higher-margin Xeon production toward older manufacturing nodes while using available cleanroom capacity to accelerate deployment of newer technologies.

Analyst Matt Bryson said the major question now revolves around the competitiveness of Intel’s 18A node and the products built on it. Intel has already confirmed that Panther Lake will become its first major product produced using the 18A process.

The company continues attempting to convince investors that its manufacturing turnaround can restore technological leadership after years of delays and competitive setbacks.

Analysts Raise Long-Term Expectations

Wall Street sentiment toward Intel improved notably after several firms upgraded their outlooks.

Seaport analyst Jay Goldberg acknowledged that parts of the semiconductor rally may have moved ahead of actual operating fundamentals. However, he argued that Intel and Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. remain among the few chipmakers capable of eventually growing into elevated valuations through operational improvement.

Benchmark analyst Cody Acree also turned more optimistic following discussions with Intel management, suggesting investors may be underestimating Intel’s earnings potential for 2027 and 2028.

Benchmark raised its price target on Intel to $140 from $105 while maintaining a Buy rating. Meanwhile, Citigroup Inc. lifted its target to $130 from $95, citing stronger-than-expected server CPU demand.

INTC Chart Daily –  Rebounding Off the 20 SMA

The speed of the upside move and the clear break above $100 indicates that investors are increasingly willing to accumulate shares at perceived value levels. While sustained upside momentum will require further confirmation, the structure has improved meaningfully, despite the recent pullback. The $100 zone held as support, helped by the 20 daily SMA and we have seen a decent rebound in the last two days, which confirmed the uptrend.

China Risks Continue Hanging Over the Sector

Despite improving momentum, geopolitical concerns remain a major risk for Intel and the broader semiconductor industry.

The deteriorating relationship between the United States and China continues reshaping global chip supply chains and long-term demand expectations. Washington has expanded restrictions on advanced semiconductor exports, while China accelerates efforts to reduce dependence on foreign technology providers.

For Intel, this creates uncertainty around future market access and long-term growth visibility. China remains one of the largest markets for enterprise computing, data centers, and AI infrastructure, making any prolonged disruption particularly significant.

Competition Intensifies Across Server Market

Intel also continues facing mounting pressure from rivals in the server processor market.

According to UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri, Intel’s server CPU market share declined to 54.9% during the first quarter from 64.4% previously. Meanwhile, AMD expanded its share to 27.4%, while Arm Holdings plc increased to 17.7%.

The growing adoption of Arm-based systems among hyperscale cloud providers reflects a broader structural shift within the semiconductor industry, while AMD continues benefiting from strong demand tied to AI infrastructure and cloud computing.

Foundry Ambitions Support Longer-Term Optimism

Even with rising competitive and geopolitical pressures, Intel’s foundry ambitions remain a key source of longer-term optimism.

Reports suggesting potential manufacturing partnerships with companies such as Apple Inc., Alphabet Inc., and Tesla, Inc. have helped improve confidence in Intel’s advanced manufacturing roadmap.

Still, the semiconductor sector remains highly capital intensive, with supply-chain instability, infrastructure spending, and global tensions continuing to create a difficult operating environment even for the industry’s largest players.

Intel Q1 Earnings Report

• Intel reported Q1 revenue of $13.6 billion, up 7% year-over-year, broadly in line with expectations.
• The key upside surprise came from earnings, with EPS at $0.29 versus just $0.01 expected by the Street, marking a significant bottom-line beat.
• Strong Q2 guidance was the main catalyst, with revenue projected as high as $14.8 billion and EPS at $0.20, both well above analyst forecasts.
• Management’s outlook suggests its multi-year foundry turnaround and AI PC strategy are gaining traction.
• Progress on Intel’s 18A process node emerged as a major bullish signal, transitioning from development into a commercial growth driver.
• CEO Lip-Bu Tan emphasized that the shift toward “agentic AI” is increasing demand for advanced CPUs and wafer packaging technologies.
• Data Center and AI revenue jumped 22% year-over-year to $5.05 billion, beating expectations of $4.41 billion.

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Skerdian Meta

Lead Analyst

Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.

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